The latest poll by Israel’s Channel 12 television network points to a shift in the balance of the electoral race and intensifying political challenges for Benjamin Netanyahu. According to the poll, Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, would take first place with 23 seats, while Netanyahu’s Likud party would rank second with 20 seats. The three-seat gap between the two parties carries political significance as the contest to form the next government unfolds and could be seen as a warning sign for Netanyahu and his party.
According to the same poll, Naftali Bennett’s Together party would win 13 seats. Yisrael Beiteinu and the Democrats would each secure nine seats, while the Joint Arab List, Shas and Otzma Yehudit would each win eight. United Torah Judaism would take seven seats, the Religious Zionism alliance six, and the Arab Ra’am party five. The Hendel and Zelikha list would also feature in the projection, with four seats. This distribution points to a multipolar contest in which no single party would secure the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority and the formation of a government.
The significance of the poll extends beyond Yashar’s lead over Likud; the distribution of seats between the political blocs will also be decisive for the next government. According to a report on the Channel 12 poll, parties opposed to Netanyahu would collectively win 67 seats, while the governing coalition would secure 49. The remaining four seats would go to a faction classified outside the two main blocs. If this distribution were borne out in the election, Netanyahu’s opponents would be in a different numerical position. However, the eventual composition of coalitions and the parties’ post-election positions would remain decisive.
Comparing these results with a Channel 14 poll also highlights differences between media outlets’ projections. The Channel 14 poll cited in the report projected 29 seats for Likud and 20 for Yashar. Channel 12, by contrast, projects 23 seats for Yashar and 20 for Likud, presenting a markedly different picture. This discrepancy shows that polling results depend on when surveys are conducted, the populations sampled and the methods used. No single poll can be treated as a definitive election result.
According to the published report, the Channel 12 poll surveyed 509 people aged 18 and older, with a stated maximum margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. The three-seat gap between the two parties must therefore be assessed in light of the survey’s statistical limitations. Its political significance lies above all in what it reveals about the state of the electoral contest and the vulnerability of Likud’s position.
Meanwhile, the election campaign, unfolding against the backdrop of the consequences of Netanyahu’s hawkish policies and the military attack on Iran, has taken on dimensions that extend beyond party competition. The repercussions of the Ramadan war, from economic pressures and rising living costs to heightened security concerns and reports of reverse migration, have added to the Israeli government’s political challenges. At the same time, the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for Netanyahu in connection with crimes related to the Gaza war, alongside mounting criticism of Israel’s conduct and growing diplomatic pressure, has highlighted the international costs of his policies.
Under these circumstances, Eisenkot’s lead in the Channel 12 poll can be viewed as a warning sign for Netanyahu and Likud. In this context, Netanyahu’s critics are concerned that escalating foreign tensions could once again be used as a tool to shift the political agenda and sideline demands for accountability. What is clear is that the poll has once again raised serious questions about Netanyahu’s political future and the level of electoral support for his party.
Nevertheless, leading in a poll does not necessarily translate into the ability to form a government. The final outcome will depend on votes cast on election day, whether parties clear the electoral threshold, voter turnout and the ability of political factions to reach coalition agreements. For this reason, whether the trend continues or changes in subsequent polls will be particularly important. If Yashar maintains its lead over Likud in future surveys, political pressure on Netanyahu will intensify. However, the extent to which that pressure affects the composition of the next government will become clear only when the final distribution of Knesset seats is known.
