The US midterm elections are shaping up to be a test of Donald Trump’s performance, as economic discontent, criticism of his immigration policies and declining public support for the president pose growing challenges for the Republican Party. Trump, meanwhile, has tied the fate of his party’s candidates to his own performance, effectively placing a significant share of responsibility for the election outcome on the White House.
High Prices: Republicans’ Achilles’ Heel
The cost of living has emerged as the biggest source of pressure on the administration. A poll conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, with findings released on October 1, 2026, shows that 65 percent of American adults attribute rising prices more to Trump’s policies than to factors beyond his control. Only 17 percent approve of the president’s handling of the cost of living, while approval of his overall management of the economy stands at 26 percent.
These figures suggest that economic discontent is more than just a general public concern; it is directly linked to how Americans evaluate the president’s performance.
This presents an electoral challenge for Republican candidates, who must defend the record of an administration that a large share of voters hold responsible for rising living costs. As economic discontent increasingly erodes Trump’s electoral support, retaining congressional seats is likely to become more difficult for his party.
Falling Approval Ratings and a More Motivated Opposition
A Pew Research Center poll released on October 8 points to another sign of a shifting political landscape. Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 30 percent, while 44 percent of voters say their vote is primarily motivated by opposition to him.
In a hypothetical House of Representatives election, Democrats lead among registered voters with 44 percent support, compared with 36 percent for Republicans. The eight-point gap indicates a Democratic advantage in voter preference, though it does not guarantee a final victory.
This lead becomes more significant when voter enthusiasm is taken into account. Among voters who say they are extremely motivated to participate in the election, 59 percent support Democratic candidates, compared with 35 percent who back Republicans.
Democrats’ advantage, therefore, is not limited to voters’ overall preferences; it is also evident among those most eager to turn out. Nevertheless, actual turnout and conditions in individual congressional districts could alter the final outcome.
Immigration and Trump’s Personal Controversies
Immigration policy has also become a major point of contention. Concerns over the conduct of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers, along with a recent shooting in New York in which, according to published reports, a man was shot in his car in the presence of his five-year-old child, have intensified debate over the limits of officers’ authority and government accountability.
Meanwhile, efforts to add Trump’s name to the Kennedy Center and his focus on construction projects at the White House have drawn attention to questions about the president’s priorities.
A poll conducted by the University of Massachusetts Amherst also found that 62 percent of respondents oppose adding Trump’s name to the Kennedy Center. Fourteen percent support the move, while 24 percent hold a neutral position. These figures relate specifically to that proposal and should not be interpreted as evidence of opposition to all of Trump’s actions or policies.
Congress: The Administration’s Real Test
Taken together, these factors have placed Republicans in a difficult position. If economic discontent and opposition to Trump’s performance translate into protest votes, Democrats will have a greater opportunity to take control of the House of Representatives. Republicans, meanwhile, will need to mobilize their electoral base and defend their candidates in competitive districts to retain their majority.
Still, a lead in national polls alone does not determine the outcome of an election. The distribution of congressional districts, voter turnout and local races also play important roles.
What is clear at this stage is the link between the administration’s performance and the governing party’s electoral prospects: the wider the gap between Americans’ expectations regarding their cost of living and their assessment of Trump’s performance, the harder it will become for Republicans to defend their congressional majority.
