For years, Europe has sacrificed its security independence and, consequently, its political and economic autonomy through its alignment with Washington. Now, after enduring heavy US tariffs and being sidelined in Washington’s global calculations, it faces another humiliation. European countries have spent hundreds of billions of dollars supporting Ukraine and confronting Russia, yet US President Donald Trump has simultaneously spoken of an agreement to import Russian diesel and called for elections in Ukraine, developments that also cast uncertainty over Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s political future.
This glaring contradiction shows that, contrary to the assumptions of European leaders, Washington places its own interests ahead of its transatlantic commitments. Europe has once again been bitten by the same snake of trust in the US. This time, however, the cost of following Washington has called into question not only Europe’s strategic autonomy but also its political credibility and economic capacity.
Addiction to Sanctions and Accusations: Escaping Reality
The European Union’s response to recent developments represents a continuation of the same failed policies. The bloc has added nearly 1,600 new entries to its sanctions list against Russia. European Council President António Costa has described the move as the largest single expansion of the sanctions list since the start of the war in Ukraine. Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, has also stressed the need to maintain pressure, while Germany’s chancellor has declared Berlin’s opposition to easing pressure on Moscow.
But the fundamental question is how far tougher sanctions can compensate for the failure of Europe’s previous calculations. As the US pursues its interests through an agreement with Russia, Europe’s insistence on economic pressure is less a sign of strength than an indication of its inability to reassess failed policies.
It is in this context that the latest accusations against Iran and Russia should also be assessed. The UK, itself a key partner in Washington’s policies, is seeking once again to turn Iranophobia into an instrument of its foreign policy. By alleging that the incident at RAF Fairford was coordinated in Iran and directed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), sanctioning two Iranians and issuing a joint statement with 28 countries, London is attempting to revive this approach. The British prime minister’s claim that Russia played a role in the 2016 Brexit referendum can be examined in the same context: redirecting public attention away from domestic crises and contradictions in foreign policy toward external threats.
Europe’s Show of Strength: A Narrative Unsupported by Reality
The contradiction between claims and reality is the most significant weakness in Europe’s display of power. Alexander Novak, Russia’s deputy prime minister responsible for energy, has put the value of Russian energy exports to the European Union since 2022 at $320.7 billion. The figure highlights the gap between the public narrative surrounding sanctions and the reality of economic relations.
In the military sphere, calls for an independent strategy for Europe and Ukraine, alongside Zelenskyy’s appeal to Trump to pressure Russia over energy, point to Kyiv’s security dependence and the West’s weak strategic coordination. Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s supreme allied commander in Europe, has also spoken of personnel shortages in European militaries. Kallas’s claim that Saudi Arabia had asked Europe for help with transit through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, meanwhile, cannot, in the absence of sufficient evidence, be regarded on its own as proof of Europe’s strength.
By contrast, signs of crisis within Europe itself have become increasingly apparent. The UK’s Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned about the pressure that inflation and government spending are placing on the country’s budget. Merz’s electoral setback in a German state election, protests by French students and strikes in the UK also point to growing social discontent. European countries’ inability to respond decisively to US sanctions against the International Criminal Court is another manifestation of the limits of their political independence.
High Cost of Miscalculation: Europe on a Path of Decline
The war in Ukraine, contrary to European leaders’ initial expectations, has turned into a protracted conflict carrying heavy economic and security costs, one that could deepen divisions within the European Union.
Europe’s alignment with the US in West Asia and its participation in policies that, according to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, have involved cooperation in the US-Israeli aggression against Iran also increase the risk of imposing further costs on the continent.
Every miscalculation can add another layer to Europe’s economic and political crisis, particularly as its lack of independence has deprived it of the ability to play a decisive role in global affairs. Sanctioning Iran and repeating unsubstantiated allegations are no remedy for Europe’s declining power, just as continued compliance with Washington offers no guarantee of security or prosperity for Europeans.
Europe must recognize that Rubio’s selective rhetoric about history will prove to be nothing more than an illusion if it becomes a tool for drawing the continent into new confrontations. The history of the Iranian nation has also shown that those who have calculated that Iran could be destroyed have encountered realities shaped by the will and civilization of its people, realities that do not conform to political propaganda. If Europe continues to pursue the wrong course out of fear of decline, it may end up bringing about, with its own hands, the very future it is trying to escape.
