NOURNEWS - The political, economic and security situation in the world had progressed to the point where the US-China confrontation had reached alarming levels even before the Corona crisis began. However, the restraint and self-control of the two sides largely preserved the space in the soft realm and prevented them from reaching a tough confrontation.
After Corona's outbreak, however; The situation was different, and the United States suffered a lot from the mismanagement of the crisis, especially in the areas of economics and employment. Accordingly, the main question in the current situation is what will happen in the end, and will this great conflict lead to a tough confrontation, or not?
It seems that Trump and the United States will be at least two steps behind China in international relations and global role-playing for at least the next two years.
First of all; China has managed to control the social and psychological effects of the epidemic by curbing the coronavirus outbreak while maintaining stability in the country, while COVID-19 has led to a social crisis in the United States.
Secondly; In the economic debate, which has been the most vulnerable area due to the corona outbreak, China has almost returned to its previous good position and managed to restore the country's economic growth to about 4% while repairing the 50% drop caused by the corona.
The United States is still in crisis in both areas (the spread of the coronavirus and the economic downturn), and the social and political implications of this trend are becoming more and more apparent.
In addition, the murder of George Floyd and the rise of anti-racist protests have given rise to unstable political conditions in the country, given the ongoing presidential election and the sharp rise in party rivalries.
In such a situation, the recent social protests, which have spread almost all over the United States and caused a state of emergency in many parts of the country, have taken the White House rulers by surprise.
Trump's engagement with international organizations, especially the World Health Organization, on the one hand, and China's close cooperation with these organizations, and Beijing's generous donations to countries affected by the Corona spread around the world, have further weakened America's global position on China.
Note that; Trump's top priority right now is to win the presidential election, and he is ready to do anything to make that happen.
To succeed in the upcoming election, Trump has no choice but to restore the economic situation and maneuver on the only achievement of his presidency, which is now in danger of extinction.
To achieve this, China's role and positive influence are inevitable due to the strong interdependence of the Washington and Beijing economies.
Trump has no choice but to back down and make big concessions to Beijing and return to the status quo, and even more. Of course, the outlook for the future is far from this hypothesis, but it is still too early to make a final judgment.
Another point is that; If Trump does not want to compromise with China, he has no choice but to approach Europe and strike a balance and build a strong global front. It is clear that choosing this path is not less costly than compromising with China, given Trump's current approach to a united Europe.
Another point is that; If Trump does not want to compromise with China, he has no choice but to approach Europe and strike a balance and build a strong global front. It is clear that choosing this path is not less costly than compromising with China, given Trump's current approach to EU, and because the sharp differences between Europe and the United States on fundamental international issues such as the Paris Climate Agreement, JCPOA, the NATO issue, Brexit, etc... , are not issues that can be easily resolved.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel's refusal to accept Trump's invitation to attend the G7 summit, which could have been repeated by other European members if Trump had not canceled it quickly, was a clear indication of the depth of the differences that have arisen mainly because of Trump's unilateralist policies and his attempt to humiliate Europe.
By choosing either of these two paths, Trump has no choice but to break away from the one-sided policy he has pursued over the past four years or so and take the path of multilateralism.
The change in the mentioned phase will naturally cause serious and unavoidable damage to the United States in the field of international relations, and will seriously affect the hegemony of this country.
If Trump is able to improve his situation by choosing one of the above-mentioned options and succeed in the next presidential election, he has no choice but to adopt a policy of multilateralism in the next presidential term.
The presence of Democrat Joe Biden in the White House will naturally distance itself from unilateralism and adopt a multilateralist approach.
according to this; The main winner of this game is China, which has been able to strengthen its domestic, regional and international position to enter the post-Corona conditions against other major players in the international system.
NOURNEWS