NOURNEWS- Oil demand growth in 2020 is projected to be minus 9.07 million barrels per day, down 2.23 million barrels per day from the previous year, according to a previous report. coronavirus outbreak and the sharp decline in economic activity are the main reasons for this historic downturn. Meanwhile, the growth of US crude oil demand is estimated at minus 1.8 million barrels per day, and according to the OPEC Secretary General's Secretariat and Relations with Energy Assemblies, US oil demand in the second quarter of this year was 5.4 hundred million barrels per day. The decline will reach 15.22 million barrels per day, the lowest level in US oil demand in a decade.
In addition, European oil demand for OECD members is projected to fall to 1.44 million barrels per day in 2020, With 1.94 million barrels per day, the decrease compared to 2019 will reach 12.4 million barrels per day. India's oil demand this year is projected to fall by 490,000 barrels per day compared to 2019, or 4.35 million barrels per day. China's oil demand will also decline this year due to the pandemic compared to last year, with a sharp drop of 950,000 barrels per day to 12.12 million barrels per day.
Global oil demand growth in 2019 is estimated at 830,000 barrels per day, which does not reflect a revision compared to the previous estimate. Also Global oil demand in 2019 is estimated at 99.67 million barrels per day. In addition, the growth in oil demand of OECD countries in 2019 and compared to 2018 decreased by one hundred thousand barrels per day to 47. 91 million barrels per day. Non-OECD oil demand growth is estimated at 930 million barrels per day. India and China continue to be the most important drivers of oil growth in the region, with 110 and 360 thousand barrels per day, respectively.
However, in the last two years, the growth of oil demand in Asian countries has declined, mainly due to the slowdown in economic growth in China and India and the implementation of systems to replace gas consumption with oil in some Asian countries. Meanwhile, China and India's crude oil demand growth in 2019 is estimated at 110,000 and 460,000 barrels per day, respectively.
Global oil supply and demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is estimated at 1.2 million barrels per day, its down compared to 29.85 million barrels per day in 2018. Crude oil demand in the first and second quarters of 2019 is estimated at 31.08 and 29.59 million barrels per day, respectively, which is 270 and 370 thousand barrels per day less than the production of OPEC crude oil announced by secondary sources.
OPEC crude oil demand in the third and fourth quarters of last year was 29.31 million and 30.97 million barrels per day, which is 2.11 and 0.41 million barrels per day higher than OPEC crude oil production in 3 months. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is projected at 24.26 million barrels per day, down 5.59 million barrels per day from 2019.
According to the OPEC Secretariat, demand for OPEC crude in the first and second quarters of 2020 decreased by 8.5 and 12.5 million barrels per day, respectively, compared to the same period in 2019, equivalent to 21.06 and 16.77 million barrels per day. The figures for the third and fourth quarters of 2020 are 27.89 and 31.18 million barrels per day, respectively, which are 3.1 million barrels less per day and 1.7 million barrels per day more than the same period in 2019.
The oil market has improved adequately
In this regard, Mohammad Khatibi, an energy expert, told ISNA: "Considering that the agreement to reduce production has begun, we are witnessing a slight increase in prices, so that the downward trend in prices has stopped and a gentle upward trend has begun."
According to him, it is expected that with the continuation of this trend, we can hope for a price of about $ 40, and if the commitments are well implemented, we can see even higher prices, but this depends on the performance of other countries.
The energy expert emphasized that at the end of this month, the performance of companies and the results can be reviewed, and specified: If about 80 percent of the commitments are made, the oil market will react positively, but if the commitments are 50 to 60 percent or less, the market will not react very positively.
Khatibi said that the slight slope of the price increase that has started shows the positive reaction of the market, but it is unrealistic to expect that we will reach the prices of $ 60 to $ 70 in the short term, stating: "Given that the world has not yet overcome the Corona crisis, one cannot expect a major change in the industry."
He said the main cause of declining oil demand in the world was the coronavirus, and that conditions would not return to normal until the virus was eradicated: Currently, many countries are involved in this virus and the Condition is extraordinary.
ISNA
NOURNEWS