NOURNEWS - International Group: As the medical community of Iran and the world is confused about how long the Coronavirus will be an uninvited guest of countries and what it will bring to human health, observers and researchers of international relations on the effects and consequences It is ambiguous for world politics.
But in the realm of economics, the problem is somewhat clearer; the size of the world's national economy, and especially the countries most affected by the corona, will become unprecedentedly smaller, with production and consumption declining sharply except in some health items. The bankruptcy of many small and large industries and businesses is inevitable, and we will see a huge number of unemployed people around the world.
Many of the world's largest companies will also review their production and distribution methods. The governments will try to include the principle of resilience in times of crisis in the field of industry and economy, in addition to profitability.
The Corona Crisis also has a definite winner, and it is the virtual industry and technology that will expand its legitimacy, necessity, adaptability and efficiency, and will greatly influence the lifestyle of the international community in various fields.
But in the international arena, and in answer to the question of what the post-Corona international order will look like, we are faced with a multi-unknown equation.
In the context of the Corona Crisis, we are faced with three parallel realities: governments, nations, and the sense of public self-awareness of elites who have displayed different manifestations.
In the face of the Corona crisis, the general public first entered a period of great shock, and quickly adopted the method of isolation, choosing to approach the crisis, approach competition, conflict, and sometimes blame other countries, and surprisingly Work experience has also led to the international robbery of masks and other health items at airports, sea lanes and airports between major governments.
Corona's emergence has highlighted the need for a coherent, strong, and efficient government institution, and has provided a winning card to powerful, centralized governments with greater ability to make decisions and control crises.
However, except in a few cases - at the beginning of the crisis caused by the initial shock of the governments' decision to quarantine - the nations chose the path of peace and cooperation, which can be seen as a sign of solidarity between people and their human feelings on the balcony. He mentioned the houses on their streets from Rome to Tehran. In different countries of the world, amazing scenes of the spirit of help and altruism were seen, as well as the sacrifices of the medical staff and nurses.
The Corona Crisis has also created a mental storm among the world's elites about the need for a "global government", an "efficient international organization" or an "effective crisis resolution mechanism" in the global arena.
This need and sense of need, on the one hand, was due to the self-awareness of the fact that, despite all the advances and significant growth in technology, human beings can still be surprised and confused in the face of unknown crises.
On the other hand, the fact that the current crisis is global, but the solutions are national and territorial, adds to the ambiguities and puts a paradoxical paradigm in front of the observers. The need for international cooperation is acknowledged by the fact that there is currently no such effective structure or mechanism in the global arena.
The inability of the United Nations to make any decision to resolve the crisis due to differences over the name of the virus and the non-approval of the proposal to suspend sanctions during the Corona Crisis at the Mehr Security Council reaffirmed the need for this fact.
The question of what the post-Corona world order will look like has been answered differently by international relations thinkers, depending on their theoretical approach. It seems that everyone sees the current situation in the world as an elephant icon in the story of Masnavi from an inconsistent angle.
This difference of opinion is not only due to differences in their view of human nature and the nature of society and their approach to international politics, but also a somewhat more ambiguous issue, and the specifics of the current situation and its paradoxical nature provide evidence to both groups it puts the realists and the internationalists.
Researchers cite a realistic approach that the Corona crisis showed that although the crisis is global, the real and unique solution is the national solution, and that these soldiers are the frontiers of governance that are constantly on the front lines fighting the enemy.
The conclusion concludes that the current crisis is the result of a breakdown in economic globalization, in other words, the current crisis of nationalism will be strengthened and globalization will be weakened, and the importance of a strong government as "Jean Body" and his followers liked they will increase.
In contrast, internationalists call on the world that the "nation-state" and the principle of national sovereignty cannot solve global problems. Crises cannot be confined to national borders, and in our day, coughing on one side of the world can be catastrophic on the other.
In order to document their theory, these thinkers point to other cases that show that no country can solve crises alone.
Trumpism failed at the outset, and economic and commercial neoliberalism, with its catastrophic dangers to the environment and the planet, showed that it could not cure pain and solve human problems. Nuclear weapons and long-range missiles also have no effective power, and in the face of an invisible demon named Corona, their only art is to occupy warehouses and weapons tanks without any use in their pockets.
This view hopes that multilateralism in the global arena will eventually overcome unilateralism, narrow the field of international cooperation and coexistence to extremist nationalism, and ultimately crisis the application of patriarchal methods of governance rather than authoritarianism more leads.
The group is optimistic that the Corona Crisis will serve as a serious warning to the world to seek a more coordinated response to more complex problems and prevent major catastrophes.
It is not clear what the future developments will look like and what the international order will be like, given the lack of transparency and growing ambiguity about the dimensions and timing of the crisis. However, I can point to some statements that seem more conclusive:
- It is too early to talk about the establishment of a new international order, because this crisis, despite the suffering it has caused to mankind, is not so terrible that a new building will be built on its ruins. Governments will overcome this crisis with all the difficulties, and soon the competition between the vaccine companies "Cuvid 19" and the brand of drugs that cure this disease will begin. Current trends will continue, the United Nations will be weaker, and the line of confrontation and accusation between the United States and, to a lesser extent, Europe with China will intensify.
- After the collapse of the bipolar imposed order and after that, the decline of the American dream of a new world order and the beginning of numerous and cruel wars by the American coalition in the Middle East that killed hundreds of thousands of innocent people and made millions homeless And playing democracy and human rights to start wars and drop bombs on the oppressed people, the world order has been out of the way for years, and the current crisis will only exacerbate this situation.
- This crisis, compared to similar events over the past hundred years, shows an increase in the self-awareness of human beings. This is mainly due to the extraordinary impact and speed of information networks in the world. So, unlike previous crises, the world is facing two realities at the same time: one is the crisis itself and the other is the type and level of perception of it! It is here that the role and position of the "structuralist approach" and attention to cultural identities and signs in examining and analyzing the current state of the world, as well as predicting future international developments, is highlighted.
- It seems that the Corona crisis will bring the various branches of thought in international relations closer together. The "influence and power of sovereignty" and the "autonomy and self-reliance of states" considered by realists will inevitably be considered by all countries and states, and will persuade the experience of the international crisis to establish a government or instrument. And full-fledged global work, despite its necessity, is an early expectation, and nation-states are still the main focus of world politics. But on the other hand, everyone will agree that the principle of full-fledged action and government behavior on "conflict of interest" and "competition and conflict" does not meet the needs of nations and the current state of the world. As a result, we have to wait for a new and updated version of "modern realism" or a form of pragmatic "internationalism."
Undoubtedly, in the post-Corona period, national sovereignty and the role of the state institution will be strengthened, and the basic economy and investment in healthcare will be the focus of attention. In the international arena, despite the failure of globalization processes, countries will seek to find a global mechanism to deal with the crisis and common threats. Multilateralism will also be strengthened in global politics, and countries will move further away from US-centered globalization. Following this crisis, and with the serious damage that the credit and economy of the United States and Europe will see, as well as the inability of the European Union to help its members, the image of the East will become more colorful and prominent in the eyes of the world. Under these conditions, countries such as China, Russia, India, as well as Iran will be able to be more active.
- Some well-known experts in the field of international relations in recent weeks have had useful and interesting statements and positions on the crisis of Corona and the international system, which were also reflected in the domestic media. Meanwhile, the well-known and realistic American politician Kissinger's artistic article is more important than other articles and comments. His recent stances should be seen as a reaction to the fact that the United States is losing more credibility not only at the global leadership level, but also in managing a crisis as a national government. At the same time, he made recommendations to prevent further US decline.
- The main loser of this crisis is the economy in areas such as energy, aviation industry and tourism, and the winner is virtual technology and various areas of the cyber industry. At the same time, we can hope that the combination of these two areas (economy and cyberspace), as well as the consolidation of some habits of the Corona Crisis and the tendency to a new lifestyle and the emergence of new consumption patterns, will create new areas of economic activity. From new actions and initiatives in the field of production, distribution and consumption, and as a result, a wave of economic prosperity in the countries of the world after Corona. Naturally, the share of each country will depend on their capacity and talent.
- Iran was one of the first countries to face the Corona phenomenon and despite the problems and harms of this epidemic, tried to control the crisis and manage it, to voice its voice in protest of unfair, immoral and Inhuman to the ears of the world and international circles. Relying on the approach of regional cooperation, the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in recent months has tried to play an effective role in resolving regional conflicts and passing some neighboring countries through internal conflicts. With the relative easing of this crisis, the diplomacy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, by emphasizing its usual approach to multilateralism, can build on its capacity to form an international partnership, form a coalition to negate unilateralism, and expand cooperation in Eurasia and take advantage of the West Asian region.
Professor in Tehran University & former ambassador of Iran in Russia
NOURNEWS