Nournews: Wars in which Europe is not a direct party are now reaching the continent’s economy and the daily lives of Europeans — from expensive diesel and fuel shortages in France to rising gas prices and growing concerns over winter energy supplies. The issue is no longer simply rising oil prices. Europe is facing multiple simultaneous shocks affecting crude oil, petroleum products, gas and energy transit routes, with their origins stretching from Ukraine and Russia to the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab.
France is among the first countries to show signs of this situation. Recent reports point to disruptions in the supply of some fuel stations and a sharp increase in diesel prices. At a September 18 meeting with the leaders of French political parties, President Emmanuel Macron directly linked rising energy prices to the war in Ukraine and the Middle East crisis, specifically referring to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the consequences of U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran. He stressed that France was not participating in the war but was bearing its economic consequences.
But viewing the French situation solely through the lens of gasoline and diesel would mean overlooking a more significant part of the crisis: European gas.
Europe is heading into this winter with gas storage levels below normal. According to a Reuters report on September 17, EU gas storage facilities were around 67% full — the lowest level for this time of year and well below Europe’s target of 80% by December. Companies active in the LNG market have warned that in the event of severe cold, competition between Europe and Asian buyers for gas cargoes could drive prices sharply higher. Some estimates have even pointed to the possibility of a significant surge in LNG prices this winter.
The concern becomes more serious given that a significant share of Europe’s gas requirements must now be met through the global LNG market. The Middle East war and disruptions to traffic through Hormuz have constrained LNG exports from Qatar and the UAE, putting additional pressure on the global market. As a result, Europe will have to compete with Asia for limited cargoes to refill its storage facilities. Reuters reported that European gas prices reached around €75 per megawatt-hour in early September, more than double their level a year earlier and the highest since late 2022.
An official assessment by the European Union has emphasized that the global energy market is in exceptional circumstances, Qatar’s LNG production remains disrupted, and price volatility is high.
The main issue, therefore, may not be a “gas cutoff”, but the price of gas and the cost of securing supplies during a cold winter. If severe cold coincides with continued disruptions in Hormuz, restrictions on LNG exports from the Persin Gulf and competition from Asia for cargoes, Europe will have to pay more to secure gas supplies. The cost will not be confined to household gas bills. It could also affect electricity prices, energy-intensive industries, fertilizer and food production, and ultimately inflation.
Meanwhile, developments in Yemen over the past few days could add another dangerous link to this chain. On Saturday, Ansarullah said it had attacked targets in Riyadh, while Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted a ballistic missile launched toward the capital. Reports also emerged of flames and a column of smoke near Riyadh airport, although differing accounts have been published regarding the extent of the damage and some of the claims about the targets.
The significance of this development goes beyond the attack on Riyadh itself. At the same time, the United States warned of a possible rapid escalation in the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Ansarullah, while Trump made an early return from Camp David to the White House amid reports that U.S. military options for Yemen were being considered. However, the White House has not officially stated the reason for Trump’s early return, and reports about the consideration of military options should be treated as media reports rather than as a confirmed decision to launch an operation.
If, however, the situation escalates from threats and limited clashes into a broader military operation, Europe’s energy crisis could become even more complicated. Bab al-Mandab is the southern gateway to the Red Sea, and insecurity there could increase insurance and shipping costs, lengthen vessel routes and disrupt part of the flow of energy and goods to Europe. This is particularly significant under current conditions, as vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a halt, while alternative routes have also become vulnerable.
Three geographic points have thus emerged as three links in Europe’s energy crisis: Ukraine and Russian refineries; Hormuz and the flow of oil and LNG; and Bab al-Mandab and maritime security. Alongside them, Europe’s low gas storage levels constitute a fourth variable that could become increasingly important during the cold season.
This is where the energy crisis shifts from a geopolitical issue into an economic and social one. An attack on a Russian refinery may take place thousands of kilometers away, disruptions in Hormuz may occur in the Persian Gulf, and fighting around Bab al-Mandab may take place in the southern Red Sea. Yet their ultimate effects could be felt at European fuel stations, on gas bills, in electricity prices, in the cost of transporting goods and in food prices.
Europe is not facing a single shock; it is facing a convergence of shocks. And if developments in Yemen escalate from a limited conflict into a more direct confrontation, one of the few remaining routes for the movement of energy and goods could also face greater risks.
Under such circumstances, the coming winter will be more than just a cold season for Europe. It will be a test of the continent’s energy market and its ability to absorb several crises simultaneously.
Nournews