Nournews: The lead of Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, with 24 seats against 23 for Likud, may appear to be just a one-seat difference. But in Israel’s political landscape, such a narrow gap can carry a much larger message. The latest poll by Israel’s Kan network shows that Eisenkot’s newly established party has now overtaken Netanyahu’s Likud, at a time when Israeli society, after years of war and security crises, is facing serious questions about the country’s future.
For Netanyahu, the problem is not simply Likud’s electoral performance. His wartime record has itself become part of the electoral equation. The Gaza war, the continuing humanitarian crisis, and its heavy political and security costs have increased pressure on the Israeli government. Even decisions over the future of the war and Gaza have now become electoral issues. Recent reports also indicate that Netanyahu is facing decisions ahead of the election that could directly affect his political future.
War with Iran: When the Battlefield Reached the Global Economy
But Netanyahu’s record does not end with Gaza. Israel’s entry into direct war with Iran, as part of a joint US-Israeli operation, transformed the region’s security equation from a contained crisis into a confrontation with global consequences. In response, Iranian missile strikes targeted Israel’s strategic depth, including urban areas and infrastructure, showing that the war was no longer confined to Gaza or Israel’s northern borders. Regional analyses have also reported casualties and damage in Israel caused by Iranian attacks, as well as strikes on infrastructure across the region.
The more significant consequence was the expansion of the crisis to the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed before the war. The sharp decline in vessel traffic, rising insurance and shipping risks, and surging energy prices have now carried the crisis beyond the Middle East and into global markets. Reuters reported on August 19 that traffic by cargo vessels through the Strait of Hormuz had fallen sharply, while oil prices had also risen amid uncertainty over the situation in the strait.
Israeli Voters: Has the Cost of War Finally Reached the Ballot Box?
From this perspective, Yashar’s one-seat lead should be viewed within a much broader context. Netanyahu has spent recent years seeking to consolidate his position around the issue of security. But that same issue may now be turning into his political vulnerability. If the war has failed to deliver lasting security and has instead, alongside the Gaza crisis, drawn Israel into direct confrontation with Iran and then into a broader Hormuz crisis, it is only natural for part of the public to question the costs and achievements of this strategy.
Of course, a single poll cannot determine the outcome of an election, and a one-seat lead is highly fragile. Recent polls have also fluctuated, with Likud returning to the top at certain points.
Still, the political message is clear: the war that was supposed to strengthen Israel’s deterrence has now become one of the main criteria by which Netanyahu’s performance is being judged. From Gaza to Tel Aviv, and from Tel Aviv to Hormuz, the costs of a war-driven strategy are no longer being measured only on the battlefield. Part of the bill is now reaching the ballot box.
And if this trend continues, the central question of the election may no longer be simply, “Who can guarantee Israel’s security?” It may instead become: “Who can lead Israel out of a cycle of war that has become linked to even larger crises?”
MNA