Nournews: Iran maintains that, under Article 5 of the Memorandum of Understanding (or interim agreement), navigation through the Strait of Hormuz should be managed exclusively by Iran, without interference from any other country. From Tehran's perspective, the establishment of the Oman Corridor—which had already been proposed before the ceasefire and the signing of the MoU between Iran and the United States—runs counter to the agreement. The United States, however, argues that Article 5 does not grant Iran exclusive authority over navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and that Iran's interpretation is inconsistent with the principles of international maritime law.
Oman's position, opposing the imposition of any transit fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, broadly aligns with the U.S. interpretation. What Iran seeks under the current circumstances is to reinforce its authority over the Strait of Hormuz. A growing view in recent months has been that if Iran can influence global oil and energy markets through its control over the Strait, it will gain greater leverage in international affairs. Such leverage could, in turn, strengthen Iran's bargaining position on another highly sensitive issue—its uranium enrichment program, particularly enrichment to the 60 percent level.
At the same time, the United States appears intent on degrading Iran's naval, communications, and maritime infrastructure that enables it to exercise effective operational control over the Strait. This explains why much of Washington's recent military activity has been concentrated east of the Strait of Hormuz. The objective is to diminish Iran's operational naval capabilities for controlling maritime traffic while promoting the alternative corridor favored by the United States as the principal route for shipping through the Strait.
Whether this strategy will ultimately succeed remains uncertain. Moreover, it should not be overlooked that the interim agreement faces strong opposition in both Iran and the United States. In Washington, particularly over the past several weeks, critics have argued that President Trump granted Iran concessions that far exceeded expectations. As a result, not only Democrats but also many Republicans believe the agreement benefits Iran more than it serves U.S. interests. Israel, for its part, has sought to capitalize on this political climate by reinforcing the perception that the agreement strengthens Iran, thereby building support for policies aimed at weakening Tehran.
For the time being, both Iran and the United States appear determined to continue advancing their respective interpretations of the Memorandum of Understanding. Negotiations are likely to continue, although high-level diplomatic engagement may become less frequent. At the same time, limited confrontations between the two countries over control of the Strait of Hormuz are likely to persist.
As for the longer-term outlook, much will depend on how long the current tensions and limited military clashes continue. The U.S. midterm elections will represent a critical turning point. Following those elections, President Trump may face fewer domestic political constraints and could seek to strengthen U.S. military stockpiles while also reducing the impact of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz on global oil markets, drawing on lessons learned from the recent conflict with Iran.
More pessimistic observers argue that the Memorandum of Understanding and the interim agreement merely provide a temporary pause, allowing both sides to prepare for another round of confrontation. Consequently, the way the current tensions are ultimately resolved will be decisive. It will shape the longer-term trajectory over the next two to three years, determining whether relations move toward continued confrontation or whether a broader understanding between Iran and the United States becomes possible.
At present, however, the prospects for a comprehensive agreement appear limited. Instead, both sides seem likely to continue their rivalry and strategic pressure in an effort to advance their respective objectives in the Strait of Hormuz and the wider region.
Nournews