The political atmosphere in the Occupied Territories is moving toward the upcoming elections at a time when the Zionist regime is facing several intertwined security, economic, and social crises, crises that have not only weakened the government’s position but have also revealed deeper fissures within Israel’s political structure. Polls in recent months indicate that Israeli society is more polarized than ever before: on the one hand, a significant portion of public opinion still considers a tough security approach necessary, while on the other hand, trust in the current cabinet and in Netanyahu personally has noticeably declined.
In the current situation, Israel’s political alignment can be classified into three main spectrums. First, the traditional and religious right-wing current, led by Netanyahu and the Likud party, which continues to operate around the axes of security, regional confrontation, and maintaining the coalition with far-right and Haredi parties. Second, the center-right and security-focused current, which includes figures such as Naftali Bennett, Gadi Eizenkot, and some former military commanders, and is attempting to present itself as a pragmatic alternative to Netanyahu. Third, the liberal and secular spectrum, led by Yair Lapid, which focuses more on domestic crises, economic issues, judicial reforms, and reducing political tensions.
Recent developments show that the political weight of the second current is increasing—a current that, although it holds no fundamental difference with Netanyahu on security matters, believes that Israel’s current prime minister has suffered strategic erosion in managing the wars and regional crises. The new electoral alliance between Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid can also be analyzed within this framework. Recent polls by the newspaper Maariv indicate that the joint list of these two currents could secure between 27 and 28 Knesset seats, potentially surpassing Likud. However, the main issue in Israeli politics is not merely the number of seats a party wins, but the ability to form a coalition that can cross the threshold of 61 seats.
An examination of polling data shows that although the opposition coalition has at times reached the threshold of a majority, it still faces serious difficulties in forming a government. Part of this problem stems from the fragmentation among the anti-Netanyahu currents, and another part arises from the opposition’s potential dependency on Arab parties, an issue that remains sensitive for a segment of Israel’s political landscape.
In the sphere of public opinion, polling data also paints a remarkable picture. In some recent polls, Naftali Bennett has overtaken Netanyahu in a direct matchup for the premiership, and even Gadi Eizenkot has, in certain scenarios, performed close to or better than the current prime minister. This indicates that part of Israeli society is seeking an alternative from within the security and right-wing camp itself, not necessarily a fundamental political shift.
Another important factor in Netanyahu’s declining popularity is the persistence of his corruption cases and the protracted nature of the judicial proceedings against them. In Israel’s political atmosphere, the perception has gradually taken hold that the continuation of security crises and wartime conditions has effectively helped postpone political and judicial pressures against the prime minister. This very issue has caused even some traditional Likud supporters to have doubts about Netanyahu’s continued leadership.
But perhaps the most significant challenge for the Israeli government is the gap between the declared objectives of the wars and the realities on the ground. In the north, despite extensive strikes, Hezbollah remains an active threat, and the issue of fully restoring security to the border settlements remains unresolved. In Gaza, a war that was supposed to lead to the complete elimination of Hamas has instead turned into a grinding conflict, while the issue of the prisoners and the political future of Gaza remain unanswered.
Most importantly, regarding the Iran file: despite the formation of a war coalition between the United States and Israel for an all-out attack on Iran, and despite rising tensions and security costs, Israel and the United States have not only failed to achieve any of their declared strategic gains but have also created a complex crisis in the region and on the global stage. This situation, combined with war-induced economic pressures, declining investment, and rising military expenditures, has further complicated Israel’s domestic environment.
Taken together, these circumstances have turned Israel’s upcoming elections into something beyond a mere contest between parties, into a kind of referendum on Netanyahu’s record. This is a prime minister who for years has held the Zionist regime’s policy hostage to security and crisis, but who now faces a society that is questioning, more than ever before, the cost and the outcome of this path.
NOURNEWS