Data tracking year-on-year changes in global liquefied natural gas (LNG) loadings from January 2025 through March 2026 indicate that, prior to the recent geopolitical tensions, the market had been on a path of notable expansion. In the first half of 2025, LNG production and exports experienced a steady upward trend with limited fluctuations, and from March onward, double-digit growth was recorded in certain periods. This increase was driven largely by capacity expansion in North America and rising supply from other regions.
Between the summer and autumn of 2025, the LNG market reached its peak growth phase, with annual increases in loadings during months such as October and November reaching approximately 9 to 10 billion cubic meters. North America played a leading role in this growth, while Asia, Africa, and the Middle East contributed as complementary suppliers.
However, by late 2025, signs of a slowdown in growth momentum began to emerge. In December, although the market remained in positive territory, the pace of expansion weakened. This trend continued into January and February 2026, until escalating geopolitical tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following US and Zionist regime attacks against Iran, pushed the market into a new phase.
The Strait of Hormuz, as one of the world’s most critical energy transit routes, plays a key role in LNG exports, particularly from Middle Eastern producers. Disruption in this corridor led to a significant reduction in global supply. The impact became clearly evident in March 2026, when global LNG output declined by approximately 8 percent compared to the same period the previous year.
A regional breakdown shows that the sharpest declines occurred in the Middle East and in the category of “other regions,” both of which were heavily affected by transportation and export constraints. In contrast, North America maintained positive growth, but this increase was insufficient to offset declines elsewhere.
Overall, these developments highlight the acute sensitivity of the global LNG market to geopolitical events. Any disruption in strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz can rapidly reverse growth trajectories. If the current situation persists, it could have far-reaching implications for energy prices, supply security, and investment prospects in the gas sector.
NOURNEWS