Nournews: In recent days, the media and online space have witnessed the publication of news and reports focusing on the positions of officials from various emirates. These positions, rather than carrying moral or instructive value, expose strategic disagreements among the emirates and the activation of separatist fault lines—fault lines that for years had been contained under titles such as maintaining unity against regional and extra-regional rivals, shared economic interests, pressure from Western allies, and even compromise with the Israeli regime. However, these same factors now resemble massive seismic faults capable of shaking the very fabric of the country’s cohesion.
In unprecedented statements—within a political and legal discourse that conveys specific meanings and intentions in expressing deep-rooted crises—a wound has reopened that can no longer be concealed. Mohammed bin Zayed, President of the UAE, wrote in a message on the social platform “X” that “responsibility is a trust, and any official who thinks only of their personal success or does not strive for the advancement of others in the country is not a true custodian of that trust.” He also described self-centeredness in public administration as a form of betrayal, emphasizing that a true official must be concerned with the entire nation, not merely personal interests.
In response to these developments, although Jawaher Al Qasimi, the wife of the ruler of Sharjah, described such news and claims as “completely baseless,” the very use of language infused with warnings about fragmentation reflects fundamental transformations in the country’s governance structure. These transformations stem from longstanding disputes, the consequences of recent regional developments, divisions among elites and decision-makers over how to govern the country, regional engagement, and even the extent of reliance on what are seen as unreliable U.S. promises and the costly consequences of compromise with Israel.
Fragmentation Lurking; Dormant Fault Lines on the Verge of Awakening
The United Arab Emirates was formed in 1971 through the union of seven emirates. Based on political agreements, the presidency is held by the ruler of Abu Dhabi, while the prime ministership belongs to the ruler of Dubai. However, the unequal distribution of wealth and power, along with monopolistic tendencies, has effectively created tensions among the emirates, with significant social and ethnic consequences.
Although the centralized power structure has sought to present a unified image regionally and globally, issues such as relations with Israel—which have distanced the UAE from Islamic countries—its regional role, and especially its participation in developments referred to as the “Ramadan War” within a U.S.-Israeli framework, have imposed heavy costs and damages on both the country and the region, disrupting economic and political security. This trend, combined with monopolized decision-making and social and economic discrimination, has intensified divisions within Emirati society and led to increasing demands in media and online spaces to end this situation.
Warning Signs; From Political Divides to Multi-Layered Messages
Warnings and speculation about the possibility of UAE fragmentation are reinforced by a chain of interconnected developments drawing attention to the country: a sudden exit from OPEC, renewed rivalry with Saudi Arabia in Yemen and Riyadh’s punitive approaches, a Financial Times report on the deployment of Israeli systems in the UAE, contradictory positions by UAE officials regarding the “Ramadan War” and the Strait of Hormuz, visits by Western officials emphasizing the “preservation of UAE unity,” the expulsion and confiscation of assets belonging to 15,000 Pakistani Shias, and reports of capital shifting from Dubai to Singapore and East Asia. All of these signals strengthen the notion of a growing fragmentation environment.
In summary, it can be said that the UAE’s miscalculations in regional crises and its alignment with U.S.-Israeli strategies have imposed undeniable costs on the country—costs whose most significant consequence is the activation of internal fault lines and the strengthening of separatist tendencies among the emirates.
Spillover of Crisis; Has the Domino Effect of Instability in the Persian Gulf Begun?
Given the UAE’s internal situation, its position within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), and its efforts to expand influence in the Arab League and regional and global dynamics, the spillover of internal crises—including fragmentation—into other GCC member states is not unlikely.
Recent tensions among members, instability resulting from alignment with U.S. policies in the so-called “Ramadan War,” and the costs these countries are paying for failing to counter U.S.-Israeli war-driven approaches, combined with rising awareness among elites and public opinion about the inefficiency and deceptive nature of U.S. security guarantees—which prioritize Israel as their sole ally—could extend the crisis to other regional countries, including Jordan.
Part of this situation may stem from attempts by UAE leaders to use external tensions to manage or conceal internal divisions, while another part reflects rapid regional developments and divisions among elites and governing structures regarding engagement with the United States and frameworks for regional cooperation, particularly within the GCC. This is especially evident as the “Ramadan War” has exposed the inefficiency of the council and the ineffectiveness of U.S.-led security arrangements.
Nournews