Nournews: Political and field developments over the past week indicate that the Islamic Republic of Iran, by implementing a pre-planned and intelligent operational design, has managed to seize the initiative on the battlefield. This plan, formulated months in advance and supported by the preparation of operational capabilities, has been based on “strategic patience” and gradual advancement. It has now reached a point where the enemy’s offensive and defensive infrastructures have been significantly neutralized.
Effective and relative control over the enemy’s airspace, along with easy access to all intended targets in the occupied territories and in countries serving as sources of threat, is a clear sign of a shift in the balance of power. This achievement has not only consolidated Iran’s military superiority but has also enabled it to exert smart and targeted pressure on the aggressor. Under such circumstances, it is natural that Tehran does not see a clear prospect for an immediate ceasefire, as the tools at its disposal allow it to impose its conditions.
The Logic of Deterrence in Iran’s Conditions
The conditions Iran should consider for ending the war must not be merely a set of tactical demands; rather, they should encompass the components of an active deterrence doctrine. The first and most important condition is a guarantee against the recurrence of aggression—a principle known in security literature as “sustainable deterrence.”
Alongside this, the demand for the closure of U.S. military bases in the region—as the primary platform of threat—must be regarded as a strategic necessity. This approach would ensure not only Iran’s national security but also regional stability. Emphasizing the payment of reparations and ending the war across all fronts, which reflects Iran’s comprehensive view of war and peace, should be considered not merely as a way to stop the conflict, but as a requirement for reforming the structures that generate crises.
Hormuz: A Geopolitical Knot of Global Security
In addition to the above, the establishment of a new legal regime for the Strait of Hormuz should be put forward as one of Iran’s key conditions. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital artery that plays a decisive role in global energy security, and the recent conflict has shown that any insecurity in this region can quickly escalate into a global crisis.
The unprecedented energy crisis that emerged in the wake of the clashes revealed the deep dependence of the global economy on Iran’s security. In such an environment, contradictory and at times hasty threats by Donald Trump—including threats to attack Iran’s energy infrastructure or even raising issues such as pressuring NATO—reflect not strength, but strategic desperation.
In fact, by leveraging its geopolitical position, Iran has managed to shape an equation in which global security is directly tied to its national security.
From Punishing the Aggressor to Consolidating a New Order
Iran’s overarching strategy in this war, beyond a purely military response, must focus on “punishing the aggressor” and creating a lasting historical lesson. This approach should be pursued with the aim of altering the opponent’s calculations and preventing the recurrence of similar scenarios.
Accordingly, the prosecution and extradition of actors affiliated with anti-Iranian media—who played a direct role in facilitating aggression and crimes against the Iranian people by shaping the psychological environment—demonstrate Tehran’s understanding of the hybrid nature of modern warfare, where the media and public opinion are as important as the military battlefield. This multidimensional perspective reflects an effort to shape a new security order in which the costs of aggression are significantly increased.
The realization of these conditions could serve as an effective transition from a temporary ceasefire to a lasting peace—a peace built on deterrence, the restructuring of threat-generating mechanisms, and the consolidation of a new balance of power.
NOURNEWS