A fresh survey by Israel’s Lazar Institute paints a clear picture of the ongoing political impasse. Results published by the newspaper Maariv show that if elections were held now, neither the ruling coalition led by Benjamin Netanyahu nor the opposition camp would be able to form a majority government, a situation that severely threatens the regime’s political stability.
According to the poll, Netanyahu’s coalition controls only 52 of the Knesset’s 120 seats, well short of the 61-seat threshold required to form a government. On the other side, the opposition camp, with 58 seats—even when combined with Arab representatives holding a total of 10 seats—also fails to clear that threshold. This fragile balance among parties has intensified the political crisis and fueled the high likelihood of early elections.
Netanyahu’s recent meeting with Donald Trump slightly boosted the popularity of the Likud party, but this gain came at the expense of support for Naftali Bennett’s party within the opposition camp. In addition, the far-right Religious Zionism party led by Bezalel Smotrich and the centrist Blue and White party headed by Benny Gantz failed to cross the electoral threshold required to enter the Knesset, further complicating the prospects for a stable coalition.
The temporary uptick in Netanyahu’s popularity following meetings with U.S. presidents—while highly publicized and short-lived—has had no real impact on resolving the political crisis. Most opposition parties have declared they are unwilling to cooperate with Arab representatives to form a government, a factor that has effectively blocked any path to establishing a cabinet.
The consequences of this crisis are not confined to Israel’s domestic arena. The prolonged political deadlock could have a direct impact on Israel’s regional policies and international relations. If early elections are held, potential changes in the cabinet—or the continuation of an ineffective government—could lead to heightened tensions in the Middle East and weaken the regime’s diplomatic capacity.
The experience of the 2021 elections shows that complex coalitions relying on external support from Arab parties offered only a temporary way out of the crisis. That model, however, has its own limitations, and its continuation would exacerbate internal instability and intensify political pressure on future governments.
Officially, Israel’s next nationwide elections are scheduled for late October 2026. However, the current political impasse could disrupt the official timeline. Experts warn that under such circumstances, Israel may face a period of internal instability and heightened regional diplomatic challenges.
In sum, Israel’s political landscape has reached a critical point where, without multilateral coalitions or early elections, no viable solution exists to ensure internal stability or effectively manage foreign policy.
NOURNEWS