Nournews : The challenge of drought and declining water reserves behind dams, which began long ago, is now taking on increasingly tangible and widespread dimensions. The relative restrictions in the national water distribution network have convinced citizens of the seriousness of the water stress, making the footsteps of crisis audible even to the most indifferent ears.
Above all, the recent remarks by the President in Sanandaj—about the possible rationing of water in Tehran and even the evacuation of the capital—took many by surprise. His short but meaningful statement, “If it does not rain, we will be forced to ration water in Tehran from December, and if the drought continues, we will have to evacuate the city,” is not merely a climatic warning. It signals that Iran’s water crisis has reached a point beyond the scope of day-to-day management, turning into an issue of security, economy, and governance.
According to official data from the Ministry of Energy, the filling rate of the country’s dam reservoirs has dropped to around 33 percent, and more than 70 percent of Iran’s territory faces some degree of drought. In Tehran, the five main dams supplying the city—Lar, Taleqan, Latyan, Mamloo, and Amir Kabir—contain less than 200 million cubic meters of water in total, roughly one-third of the usual average. In some reservoirs, the water level has reached the “dead volume,” meaning even natural discharge is no longer possible.
These figures do not merely reflect low rainfall; they reveal a structural crisis in water governance, rooted in decades of inconsistent policymaking and the absence of a holistic approach to managing natural resources.
Inefficient Water Governance
Drought and climate change are undeniable realities—not unique to Iran’s geography—but experts say their share in the current crisis is less than half the story. With annual groundwater extraction of around 60 billion cubic meters, Iran ranks among the world’s largest consumers of underground water. More than half of the country’s plains are experiencing drops in groundwater levels and the alarming phenomenon of land subsidence. In parts of Tehran, land subsidence reaches 30 centimeters per year—a figure that globally signals the collapse of urban livability.
What has made the crisis chronic, beyond natural pressures, is a flawed model of water governance: constructing hundreds of dams without comprehensive watershed assessments, expanding water-intensive agriculture in arid regions, developing steel and petrochemical industries in water-scarce provinces, and unrealistic water pricing that encourages consumption instead of control.
Over 90 percent of Iran’s water is consumed in agriculture, while irrigation efficiency in this sector remains below 40 percent. Only about 25 percent of farmland uses modern irrigation systems—meaning most of the nation’s water is lost through evaporation, seepage, and waste. Urban conditions are not much better: each Tehran resident consumes around 250 liters of water per day, nearly twice the global average, while about 30 percent of the water is lost in the city’s aging distribution network.
In modern systems of governance, water is not merely a natural resource—it is a security asset. The dependence of livelihoods, production, and urban life on water is so high that any disruption in access can trigger a chain of social, economic, and even political crises.
The brief water shortage in Hamedan in 2022 showed how quickly water scarcity can destabilize urban order: long queues, attacks on mobile water tanks, rising gastrointestinal diseases, and public discontent. Now imagine such a scenario in Tehran—a metropolis of over 12 million people. Reduced access to clean drinking water could escalate into a public health disaster, forced migration, industrial shutdowns, and social tensions.
In this context, the idea of “evacuating Tehran,” though operationally unrealistic—since relocating millions is nearly impossible even over decades—carries a strong political and managerial warning: the capital’s lack of resilience to climate change and the severe weakness in its water supply system.
Officials from the Ministry of Energy have already stated that, if the drought persists, they will have no choice but to implement water rationing—ranging from nighttime cutoffs to regional restrictions lasting 12 to 48 hours. Technically, rationing is an emergency measure to balance supply and demand during crises. However, if it becomes a permanent policy, it reflects the management system’s inability to reform consumption patterns and invest in sustainable infrastructure.
Water crises, like all environmental crises, affect different social groups unequally. Peripheral neighborhoods, underprivileged towns, and low-income families suffer the most. Water justice means distributing resources not based on financial power but on need and vulnerability. Policymakers must ensure that, during rationing, access to safe water for disadvantaged groups is preserved.
Governments must also acknowledge that the responsibility for the crisis does not rest solely on the people. While household conservation is necessary, 90 percent of Iran’s water is consumed in agriculture; without reforming that sector, cutting household use will have limited impact. Scientific, data-driven management must replace slogans like “changing consumer behavior.”
Missing Links: Water Diplomacy and Technology
One neglected dimension of Iran’s water governance is water diplomacy. Iran shares transboundary basins with several neighbors—including Afghanistan, Turkey, and Iraq. Their dam-building and water-transfer projects directly affect Iran’s border resources.
For instance, reduced water inflow from the Helmand River after the construction of Afghanistan’s Kamal Khan Dam has endangered the Hamoun wetlands, creating ecological and livelihood crises in Sistan and Baluchestan. Similarly, Turkey’s vast GAP project has limited the flows of the Tigris and Euphrates, impacting western Iran’s climate.
Under such conditions, activating international legal and technical mechanisms and forming permanent joint water commissions should be a priority in Iran’s foreign policy. The experience of arid countries shows that “water diplomacy” can transform conflict into cooperation. Shared basin management, hydrological data exchange, and agreements on sustainable utilization can all ease pressure on domestic resources.
Moreover, Iran’s path out of the water crisis does not depend solely on rainfall. Nations with even drier climates have reduced their vulnerability by adopting advanced water technologies. While Saudi Arabia now secures more than half of its drinking water through desalination, Iran’s share of this technology remains below three percent. Developing advanced treatment plants and using renewable energy for desalination—particularly in the south—could play a vital role.
Similarly, urban and industrial wastewater recycling remains an untapped capacity. Tehran produces millions of cubic meters of wastewater daily, which—if treated and reused—could meet a significant portion of the water needs of its green spaces, industries, and nearby farms. Developed nations have long made recycling a cornerstone of their water policy. Alongside this, smart consumption management systems—from digital meters to tiered pricing—can help reshape citizens’ water habits. Although the Ministry of Energy has begun installing smart meters, scaling it nationwide requires investment and firm commitment.
In the short term, rationing may be unavoidable. But in the medium and long term, only structural reforms can ensure water sustainability. Iran’s current water crisis is neither sudden nor unforeseeable. Years of expert warnings were ignored, to the point that now the country’s top executive openly speaks of rationing—or even evacuating—the capital. Yet, this crisis can still become an opportunity to rebuild governance rationally.
Water is the most important measure of governmental competence in the 21st century. Any government unable to guarantee water security will inevitably face the erosion of legitimacy and trust. Tehran may be nearing rationing today, but the real issue lies in Iran’s model of development and governance. Deliverance from the water crisis depends on difficult decisions, scientific reform, and investment in the future. If we do not act today, there may be no city left to evacuate tomorrow.
NOURNEWS