At dawn on June 13, 2025, Israel launched a massive and unprecedented assault on targets inside Iran, igniting one of the most intense direct confrontations ever with the Islamic Republic, and once again plunging West Asia into turmoil. Just a day later, on June 14, Iran responded with a storm of ballistic missiles and suicide drones that struck deep inside the occupied territories. Tehran’s retaliation not only shattered the region’s security assumptions but also radically altered the strategic thinking of global agents.
Now, as the war enters its fourth day, Iran’s drones and missiles have scoured vast stretches of Israeli territory, seriously undermining the much-vaunted Iron Dome and other Israeli defense systems. Amid this destruction, the public remains focused on a pressing question: How—and when—will this war end? What possible scenarios lie ahead for this military confrontation?
Before answering that, a review of battlefield developments is essential.
A Crippling Attack: What Was Israel’s Objective?
Field evidence and security analysis suggest that Israel’s objective went far beyond damaging Iran’s nuclear facilities or military centers. Through a campaign of targeted assassinations and high-impact strikes, the regime’s true aim was to paralyze Iran’s decision-making system with a massive psychological and structural shock. Disorienting senior officials, destabilizing leadership focus, and inducing a kind of “strategic paralysis” were all part of this covert plan.
To execute this, Israel invested months in planning intelligence operations and waited for the right moment to deliver a devastating security blow. It capitalized on U.S. diplomatic maneuvers, which fostered a false atmosphere of negotiation, allowing Tel Aviv to fully prepare for the strike—a hallmark of a full-spectrum hybrid war combining intelligence, psychological warfare, and conventional military action.
Despite the severity of these attacks, Iran launched a highly coordinated counteroffensive involving drones, missiles, and cyber components. Within just three days, hundreds of ballistic missiles and UAVs hit critical Israeli targets in Tel Aviv, Haifa, and other key locations. Advanced Israeli systems like Iron Dome and David’s Sling failed to prevent significant damage. Tehran made clear that this was merely an “initial punishment” and warned of far harsher responses if Israel—or any extra-regional force—dared to repeat or expand the aggression.
Simultaneously, Iran’s intelligence services began uncovering elements of the Israeli spy network responsible for coordinating the attacks. Authorities believe this network will soon be fully exposed, dismantled, or neutralized.
Persian Gulf: Key to War or Global Stability?
In this volatile context, Israeli strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure and southern ports near the Persian Gulf could shift the nature of the conflict dramatically. One of the most consequential scenarios is the entry of the Persian Gulf into the military equation. If Israel targets Iranian interests in this region, the war will move into a new phase—with immediate repercussions for global security.
Disruptions to maritime energy transportation could escalate the confrontation from a regional clash into a full-blown global crisis.
This is precisely what Iran identifies as its strategic red line. As Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated in a meeting with foreign diplomats in Tehran, “Any shift in the Persian Gulf that endangers Iranian interests will instantly transform the Israeli aggression from a regional incident to a global emergency.” Responsibility for such a dangerous scenario would rest squarely on Israel’s shoulders.
Indeed, the Persian Gulf is the main pivot around which Israel’s war plans—and the world’s energy stability—rotate. This single variable could dictate the future: security or catastrophe.
Looking Ahead: Scenarios in a Multi-Layered Battlefield
Unlike traditional analyses that lay out neatly separated futures for the Iran-Israel conflict, current battlefield dynamics show that scenarios are overlapping and reinforcing each other. What we’re witnessing is a multi-level hybrid conflict, a complex puzzle involving direct warfare, proxy engagement, diplomatic pressure, and a simmering “cold peace”—all unfolding at once.
Still, recognizing each scenario is vital to understanding what comes next:
1. Hybrid Warfare as the Dominant Framework:
The current level of hostilities perfectly illustrates a hybrid war—ongoing cyberattacks, drone raids, media offensives, and diplomatic maneuvers are steadily eroding the region’s stability. This endless war of attrition has taken the place of traditional full-scale wars. But such a scenario is unsustainable, as Israel is well aware of Iran’s military capabilities and knows it cannot endure a prolonged high-intensity conflict.
2. Opening Regional Fronts to Increase Pressure:
In a second scenario, Iran could activate its regional allies and open new fronts against Israel. Drone and missile strikes from Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, or Syria would force Israel to fight on multiple fronts, draining its defenses and resources.
3. A Cold Peace: A Fragile Truce Above a Simmering Battlefield:
A third possibility involves international mediation bringing the war to a halt—at least on the surface. However, such a ceasefire would likely be a tense calm or a “cold peace” rather than true stability. Beneath the diplomatic quiet, the battle would continue in other forms.
Yet, throughout all these scenarios, the wild card remains the Persian Gulf—the ultimate disruptor or stabiliser. If Israel, backed by its Western allies, escalates its aggression in this vital region, it risks triggering a catastrophic scenario—not just for the Middle East but for the entire world.
A New Regional Order Amid Layered Warfare
What’s emerging now is a fluid and brutal new balance of power—a layered cold/hot war where the lines between peace and conflict are constantly shifting. Regional and global actors can no longer rely on conventional frameworks to interpret or engage this battlefield.
In this environment, power-driven strategies, continuous preparedness, and a deep understanding of both one’s own strengths and the adversary’s capacity will be decisive. The Persian Gulf, Israel, the Axis of Resistance, and the global energy market are no longer separate arenas—but interconnected pieces in a simultaneous, high-stakes game.
NOURNEWS