Axios Report: A Slow but Significant Shift in the Persian Gulf
According to an exclusive report by the American website Axios, three sources familiar with recent meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have confirmed that Mohammed bin Salman, Mohammed bin Zayed, and the Emir of Qatar explicitly opposed military action against Iranian facilities. According to these sources, all three leaders advised Trump that a diplomatic path and the pursuit of a new agreement regarding Iran's nuclear issue would be far more reasonable and sustainable than military intervention. The Emir of Qatar also emphasized that in the event of an attack, the Persian Gulf countries would suffer more than any other party.
Mutual Security: The Persian Gulf’s Geopolitical Architecture Against War Scenarios
These positions should not be seen as a sudden shift or a desire to reconcile with Iran, but rather as a reflection of an unavoidable geopolitical understanding. The dense, fragile, and deeply interconnected structure of the Persian Gulf—from energy pipelines to financial markets and social stability—renders any military adventurism akin to detonating a bomb in a glass room where all players are present. The message of the regional leaders to Trump was more a geoeconomic warning than a political stance.
Defensive Diplomacy: The Region’s Turn to Dialogue, Not from Optimism, but Necessity
Although the discourse of diplomacy in the Middle East is often met with skepticism and doubt, in practice, dialogue—especially among key Persian Gulf actors—is increasingly seen as a lower-cost alternative to high-risk military scenarios. The Arab leaders' opposition to attacking Iran stems from a pragmatic view of Iran’s capabilities, costly past experiences with regional conflicts, and fears of opening new fronts in a region still burdened by the wounds of Yemen, Syria, and Libya.
Iran’s Position in the Equation: Not an Opportunity, but a Regional Necessity
The Islamic Republic of Iran, as a deep-rooted and influential regional actor, is—due to its geopolitical characteristics—an inseparable part of any security order in the Persian Gulf. The recent stance of the Arab leaders underscores this reality: military solutions not only fail to contain Iran but also endanger the stability of the Arab states themselves. This emerging security rationality can only be sustained if it is built upon shared interests, gradual confidence-building, and balanced, multilateral frameworks.
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