Nournews: While the agreement has been presented as an economic partnership, its geopolitical dimensions can significantly impact Kyiv’s economic autonomy and strategic decision-making.
After an intense verbal dispute between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky, media announced that Ukraine has accepted the U.S. proposal for partnership in the country’s mines and Zelensky will soon set off for Washington to sign the mining agreement.
Trump’s proposal to take control of Ukraine’s mines was made while he initiated independent negotiations between the U.S. and Russia, without Ukraine and Europe, hosted by Saudi Arabia and aiming to end the war in Ukraine. The move provoked waves of strong opposition in Kyiv and European capitals.
Along with advancing truce negotiations, Trump, emphasizing the necessity to reclaim the U.S.’s $350 billion financial and military aid in Ukraine, proposed that Washington receive a big share of the country’s mineral resources. The request was met with absolute disagreement from Volodymyr Zelensky. The disagreement was not merely confined to economic issues, but Trump, continuing his strong stance, called Zelensky “a dictator” and called for an election and for him to step down from power. Zelensky, for his part, described Trump as a person who lives “in a bubble of misinformation.”
Amid challenges between the two nations, the media announced that Zelensky has backed down in the face of Trump’s request, and Washington and Kyiv are set to negotiate over Ukraine’s mineral resources. Concerning the draft of the deal released by the media, many consider it not an economic cooperation but a kind of geopolitical give-and-take.
The agreement framework: investment or control?
According to the released information, the agreement has been arranged based on “a joint investment fund” between the U.S. and Ukraine for the exploitation of the country’s mineral resources. Apparently, the deal has been introduced as a tool for providing the needed financial resources for rebuilding Ukraine. However, in practice, a mechanism will be formed through which a big share of control and profits of the resources will be handed over to the United States.
According to the initial text of the agreement, Ukraine has committed to allocate 50 percent of income resulting from its new mine resources to the fund. In addition, any decision about transferring or selling the resources can only be made with the agreement of the American party. This means that Ukraine, even in case of an emergent need for its financial resources, is not able to make decisions about its mineral reserves independently.
The dimensions of the agreement are not confined merely to precious metals but also include hydrocarbons, oil, and natural gas resources, as well as infrastructures related to these industries. This issue has elevated the cooperation beyond a simple economic partnership, turning it into a tool for the geopolitical influence of the U.S. in Ukraine.
Strategic importance of Ukraine's mineral resources
Ukraine is one of the richest European countries in terms of mineral resources. The country has more than 20,000 mineral deposits of 116 different types, some of which, like lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese, are of high importance for battery-making industries and modern technologies.
Many of these reserves are located in the eastern parts of Ukraine, including Donetsk and Luhansk, parts of which are currently controlled by Russia. However, the reserves that are still in the hands of Kyiv are considered an important support for the country's economic rebuilding. With the agreement, the U.S. not only gains access to these resources but also can use them as a tool to impose influence on Ukraine's economic policies and even security.
Economic challenges and economic reliance
At first glance, the agreement may draw foreign investment to Ukraine and facilitate the country’s economic progress. However, in practice, it may place Ukraine on a path of long-term reliance on the United States.
One of the major challenges of the agreement is the U.S.'s majority share of the joint investment fund, which allows Washington to make key decisions about how to exploit the mines. This issue significantly diminishes Ukraine's decision-making power and causes the country's key resources to be used to achieve the U.S.'s strategic goals.
Also, the agreement has been made while the future of U.S. military aid to Ukraine is unclear. Republicans in the U.S. Congress have expressed their dissatisfaction with continuing military aid to Ukraine several times. In such an atmosphere, it is likely that the United States will use the agreement as a tool to increase pressure on Zelensky's government and force Ukraine to concede more in political and security matters.
Geopolitical implications of the agreement
The U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal is not just an economic agreement; it also has significant geopolitical dimensions. The U.S.'s control over Ukraine’s mineral deposits can affect Europe’s energy security and the continent’s reliance on new resources.
On the other hand, Russia, which has always seen Ukraine as part of its sphere of influence, strongly disagrees with the agreement. Moscow likely considers the agreement a step toward reinforcing the economic and strategic influence of the United States in Eastern Europe and may take more aggressive measures in eastern Ukraine to disrupt its implementation.
In addition, the agreement may increase tensions between the U.S. and Europe. European countries, particularly France and Germany, have always sought to maintain their strategic autonomy in the face of the U.S. An increase in Washington’s economic influence over Ukraine’s resources could raise concerns in Brussels that the U.S. is becoming a dominant power in Ukraine’s economy, controlling its vital resources.
Investment or a new domination?
Instead of paving the way for Ukraine's economic self-reliance, the agreement could deepen the country's dependency on the United States. While the outcome of the war remains unclear, and the disparity between Kyiv and Washington over future policies is increasing, it remains to be seen whether the agreement will act as a reinforcement of Ukraine's economy or as a tool for expanding the United States' economic and geopolitical influence in the country.
NOURNEWS