Nournews: Despite Western media narratives, the formation of this government is not about sidelining Hezbollah and Amal. Instead, it is a calculated decision to navigate Lebanon through the crisis and manage future developments. By allowing the government to take shape, these groups ensured that Lebanon’s political process did not reach a deadlock. However, this does not signal a withdrawal. Hezbollah and Amal are preserving their political and popular support while strategically planning to shift the power balance in their favor ahead of the next elections.
Why did Hezbollah support the government formation?
Lebanon’s political system has faced intense external pressure, particularly from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, which sought to exclude Hezbollah from the government. Washington was making an attempt to impose governance on Beirut without the Resistance. Rather than engaging in direct confrontation, Hezbollah adopted a strategy of patience. Instead of appointing official ministers, it backed technocrats aligned with its vision while preventing Western-backed factions from dominating key ministries.
A crucial example is the appointment of Yassine Jaber, an Amal ally, as Finance Minister. The U.S. aimed to remove Shiite control over this ministry, but Hezbollah and Amal countered this move through strategic negotiations.
Shifts in political power
Compared to the previous government under Najib Mikati, the new cabinet has seen an increase in influence from right-wing Christian factions like the Lebanese Forces. The appointment of Youssef Raji as Foreign Minister, a figure with strong ties to Saudi Arabia, and Ahmed Al-Hajjar as Interior Minister, a security official aligned with Riyadh, indicate growing pressure on Hezbollah.
However, Hezbollah and Amal ensured that these changes did not result in a complete victory for Western-backed factions. The resistance still holds significant influence through its strong popular base, security ties, and mobilization capabilities, allowing it to intervene if necessary.
The next step for the government: Control and political management
Due to internal disagreements and external pressures, this government is unlikely to be stable. Hezbollah and Amal seem to use their parliamentary and public influence to minimize any anti-resistance policies. Additionally, allied factions such as the Free Patriotic Movement, led by Gebran Bassil, can exert pressure on the government when needed.
The presence of figures like Nabih Berri as Speaker of Parliament further ensures that no major decision will be made without resistance approval. While the U.S. and Saudi Arabia played a role in shaping the cabinet, Hezbollah and Amal still have key tools to counter any hostile moves.
Strategic patience and future power balance
The formation of this government reflects both internal compromises and external influence. However, contrary to Western expectations, it cannot function without considering Hezbollah’s position. By allowing the government to form, Hezbollah has avoided a political vacuum while ensuring it remains in control of Lebanon’s power dynamics. The upcoming elections will be a key opportunity for Hezbollah to solidify its influence and counter U.S.-Saudi efforts in Lebanon.
NOURNEWS