As the sunset clause of the JCPOA approaches in October 2025, which will normalize Iran's nuclear activities, Western countries are scrambling to impose new restrictions on Iran's peaceful nuclear program. The IAEA Director-General, at the Davos Economic Forum in Switzerland, called for new negotiations with Iran and claimed that Iran has advanced its enrichment program to a level close to military objectives. These statements indicate the continuation of political pressure on Iran. However, before any new negotiations begin, it is essential to address the reasons for the failure of the JCPOA and the requirements for a sustainable agreement.
JCPOA and its Failure
The JCPOA, signed in 2015 to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, effectively collapsed due to the unilateral withdrawal of the US in 2018 and the Trump administration's maximum pressure policy. The breach of international commitments by Washington was the most crucial factor in the JCPOA's demise. The reimposed sanctions forced Iran to reduce its JCPOA commitments based on Article 36 of the agreement.
European Countries' Inaction
Despite their promises to secure Iran's economic interests after the US withdrawal, European countries have shown that they either cannot or will not take steps to reduce the challenges posed by Trump. Mechanisms like INSTEX remained only on paper.
One of the critical reasons that made the JCPOA a fragile agreement was the lack of executive guarantees and the absence of a mechanism to ensure the Western parties' adherence to their commitments. Therefore, any new negotiations should be based on addressing this central principle.
Iran's nuclear program: Progress within national needs
After the US withdrawal and European inaction, Iran, in accordance with Article 36 of the JCPOA, gradually reduced its commitments. These actions included increasing uranium enrichment levels and developing nuclear technology, all under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency. However, the West continues to seek to restrict this program again, an approach that cannot gain Iran's trust without providing executive guarantees.
Sunset clause: A review opportunity or a new threat?
The sunset clause of the JCPOA, which lifts Iran's nuclear restrictions by October 2025, has become a turning point in this case. This clause, given its proximity to implementation, has increased pressure on the West to resolve this agreement.
In these circumstances, any new understanding must consider past experiences and provide executive guarantees. An agreement that only emphasizes further restrictions on Iran without guaranteeing the real lifting of sanctions cannot be sustainable.
Role of IAEA
The IAEA, as the body overseeing nuclear activities, has provided numerous reports on Iran's compliance with the JCPOA until the US withdrawal. However, Grossi's recent statements and reports, which focus on serving Western policies, have called into question the independence of this institution. The agency should focus on providing impartial technical reports rather than taking political positions.
What should be done?
Iran's right to peaceful nuclear energy is recognized as a member of the IAEA, and none of the negotiating parties should intend to restrict our country in this field. Furthermore, given past experiences, any new agreement should include practical guarantees for lifting sanctions and adherence by the parties. Attempts by foreign parties to use coercive diplomacy and leverage pressure and threats to impose their political will on Iran will only lead to increased tensions and will be fruitless.
The JCPOA case and the lifting of sanctions can only be resolved by returning to negotiations based on mutual respect and balanced commitments.
NOURNEWS