Nournews: Less than a week ago, Bashar Assad’s government, during a questionable process in which the dimensions, roles, and functions of regional and international players are still unclear, was toppled. After the entry of armed fighters affiliated with Tahrir al-Sham into Damascus, they were under the command and management of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham. Bashar Assad, the president of Syria, who was heading to Russia with his family prior to the incident, traveled to Moscow and is currently residing there as an asylum seeker.
The largest challenge for the new governors since the beginning of their establishment has been creating security. Syria, as a country that has been involved in a civil war with scores of armed groups operating within it, cannot take steps toward political changes and economic reforms without security.
Over the past three weeks, despite existing concerns about security issues after the fall of the Syrian government, security has been relatively suitable. In areas that witnessed extended tensions before, relative peace has been established. Although in some Alawite-dominated areas, scattered protests have occurred, unrest is reducing and has not led to a widespread crisis so far.
The important point in creating relative security in Syria is the participation and support of some countries that back the new rulers in controlling the conditions and preventing the extension of chaos, even with the existence of scattered weapons and armed forces. This shows that the focus of the new rulers and their supporters is on creating cohesion and managing the security crisis.
Diplomacy and legitimization
Although Tahrir al-Sham and their leader, Ahmad al-Sherra (Jolani), are still on the terrorist list of the United Nations and many Western countries and Western Asia, the attempts made by the new rulers to rebuild their image inside and outside Syria have been accompanied by relative success. Ahmad al-Sherra, the leader of Tahrir al-Sham, has taken a new approach, distancing himself from revolutionary rhetoric and armed conflict, and adopting a governmental demeanor. This approach has been taken initially to reduce concerns and gain public trust.
Inside Syria, actions such as the cancellation of involuntary army service and retreating from the implementation of Islamic laws such as the hijab have been seen as signals of changes in social policies. These actions have been carried out to reduce the concerns of different groups and create relative calm.
At the international level, the new rulers have tried to attract the support of regional and international countries through active diplomacy and the backing of behind-the-scenes allies. The presence of diplomatic delegations from the United States, the European Union, and Arab countries such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan in Damascus shows their seriousness about moving beyond previous conditions and striving for acknowledgment. The foreign policy of the new rulers of Syria has been based on two main pillars so far: gaining the trust of Arab nations, particularly those concerned about Islamism taking power, and ensuring the West, particularly with regard to Israel.
By sending clear and direct messages to Israel and turning a blind eye to Tel Aviv’s repeated military aggressions and occupations, the new rulers of Syria have officially announced they are not seeking conflict with Israel. They apparently believe that an anti-Israel policy can make Syria vulnerable to severe reactions from the West and distance them from their main priorities: economy, security, and collaboration with regional and Western countries.
Urgent economic activities
The new rulers of Syria have made reforms in the economic sector, and their initial results have been relatively promising. An increase in the value of the Syrian Lira and a relative reduction in basic commodity prices are indicators of their initial successes. They have annulled the rationing system for bread distribution and reduced customs tariffs on certain goods, signaling their move toward a free economy.
Additionally, a 3-4 times increase in wages and the elimination of the corrupt currency allocation system are among other significant economic decisions made by them.
Of course, it should be noted that most of the successes in this sector stem from direct and indirect support from regional and foreign allies. However, certain economic openings for people who have faced economic hardships for years have been impactful.
In the infrastructure sector, the reconstruction of the electricity network, with the help of Turkey, has begun, and it is predicted that the hours of electricity access in many areas will increase by 10 hours a day.
Future challenges
Despite some initial progress, the new rulers of Syria face deep challenges.
The process for determining a new governmental system has not yet begun, and naturally, the distribution of power among individuals and groups within the government structure could cause conflicts.
The bankrupt economy, resulting from years of widespread war and sanctions, is another significant problem. They need to present new solutions immediately to maintain economic stability and prevent new social crises.
On the other hand, fragile security and the ethnic and religious diversity in Syria remain serious threats to the new rulers. Managing internal tensions, particularly in minority-occupied areas, requires comprehensive policies and long-term planning.
At the international level, although they have gained the trust of certain countries, parts of the global community still doubt their legitimacy. Sudden changes in foreign policy or pressures from regional countries could also pose challenges to this process.
The new rulers of Syria have taken various steps in three areas: security, diplomacy, and economy over the past three weeks. Although the current achievements are limited and fragile, they reflect an initial will to manage crises after the toppling of the former government. Continuing this process and overcoming challenges relies on their ability to maintain domestic cohesion, attract foreign aid, and implement deep and genuine economic reforms.
Only time will tell if they can achieve sustainable results on this path.
NOURNEWS