The Zionist regime's media reported on Saturday morning in a completely controlled news report about the fall of a drone in the settlement of Caesarea or Qaysariah. A settlement 55 kilometers north of Tel Aviv and between this region and Haifa. A wealthy settlement where Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of the Zionist regime, resides. Netanyahu was not present in the region at the time of the drone strike, but this did not prevent the start of speculation, analysis, and threats in the media. A day before this attack, on Friday, October 18, Hebrew and Western media reported on the revelation of the Zionist regime's readiness to attack Iran. As the ambiguities about these two events subside, the reasons for their occurrence and the motivations of the perpetrators can be examined.
Consequences of stoning the one who lives in a glass house
The drone attack on the heart of the occupied territories by the resistance axis, namely Hamas, Hezbollah, and Ansarallah, is not a new phenomenon since the beginning of the war in Gaza and Lebanon. However, the arrival of these suicidal drones to one of the most sensitive areas of Tel Aviv and the residence of Netanyahu himself is a significant development in the unequal battle in Gaza and Lebanon. 48 hours have passed since this attack, and no group has claimed responsibility, which has expanded the scope of speculation.
In examining the various scenarios and speculations about the perpetrators of this attack and their motivations, two different analyses can be reached. The first speculation is that the presence of a suicidal drone in Netanyahu's residence can be interpreted as a show by Israel to prepare the global community for new military actions in the region. The second speculation is that the attack was carried out by the resistance axis (Lebanon or Yemen) to refute the narrative of its weakness and destruction after recent blows.
In analyzing the accuracy of the first speculation, we must refer to the behavior of the Zionist regime over the past year; a regime that has not hesitated to take any action against the people of Gaza and Lebanon. Netanyahu, without worrying about accountability to any entity or group, has ceaselessly killed nearly 45,000 defenseless people in Gaza, many of whom are children, sometimes without coordinating with his patron, the United States. He has committed war crimes and genocide, without hesitation, and has disregarded global reactions and public opinion has not been deterred by the burning of Gaza's children alive. With such a history of behavior by the Israeli Prime Minister, it does not seem logical to stage an attack to prepare public opinion for further aggression. Tel Aviv has long since crossed the boundaries of such constraints. Therefore, the speculation that this attack is a ruse to prepare public opinion in the current context and with the available information is not acceptable, although information obtained in the coming days and weeks can turn this speculation into reality.
Analyzing the second speculation also requires semiotics of the behavior of the resistance axis over the past year. All three parties involved in the war, namely Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ansarallah in Yemen, and Hamas in Palestine, have repeatedly carried out operations beyond Israel's imagination, exactly at a time when Israel thought they were weak. A recent example is Hezbollah's drone attack on the Golani Brigade's headquarters and the dinner party of its commanders. Ansarallah in Yemen has also been able to send its drones to targets in the heart of the occupied territories without being detected. With this description, if the resistance axis has been able to execute this before, why can't it now hide its suicidal drone from all Israeli equipment and reach Netanyahu's glass house?
Both speculations are only speculations until the resistance axis takes responsibility for the attack or new information is released. However, what seems certain and definite is that either speculation, if true, has only one reason: The weakness of the Zionist regime in both the battlefield and politics. If the first speculation, on a very low probability, has any truth to it, it means that Israel is too weak to start a new war without accompaniment, which has not happened in the past year.
If the second speculation is confirmed, which is more likely, the Zionist regime's claims of having an "Iron Dome" and other military equipment have been proven false, as they failed to detect and target the suicidal drone that reached 77 kilometers into the occupied territories and Netanyahu's residence. Israel has, even if it created a scenario to attack Iran, explicitly and implicitly acknowledged its weakness, and this is only one of the consequences of the bloody stoning of the one who lives in a glass house.
Objectives of leaking the attack documents
On Friday, October 18, the Telegram channel "Middle East Spectator" published a collection of intelligence documents about the Zionist regime's plans to attack Iran. The summary of the published documents indicates that Israel has been preparing for an aerial attack on Iran and has prepared its ballistic missiles, which can be launched from fighter jets. Another part of the documents deals with Tel Aviv's planning to protect its military equipment and ammunition depots from a potential Iranian response.
The documents detail the transportation of ammunition, air force training for the use of long-range ballistic missiles, air-to-ground missiles, fueling aircraft, and other support aircraft, as well as confirmation of the existence of nuclear weapons in the Zionist regime's arsenal. Despite international organizations being aware of these weapons, there is no monitoring of them.
These documents, without confirmation of their authenticity from credible sources, were not analyzable, but some confirmations from intelligence sources, especially Western media channels, have allowed for analysis. The New York Times, Associated Press, and CNN, citing informed sources, have confirmed the authenticity of these documents, and as of the time of writing, the Pentagon has not denied the authenticity of the documents. Therefore, we can speculate about the reasons and motivations behind the leak.
Speculations about the parties responsible for leaking and publishing these documents (the source of the leak is not known at the time of writing) place them in three categories: The United States, Iran, and the United States-Israel. Proponents of each of these three axes have their own views on the motivations behind the leak.
Some believe that the United States, with 20 days to go until its presidential election, has leaked this sensitive information to prevent a widespread war in the region, at least until after the election. It appears that White House officials are concerned about Netanyahu's warmongering, not because of the harm it causes to innocent people, but because of the consequences for domestic affairs. However, whether this concern is the motivation for leaking the documents is uncertain, given the United States' behavior over the past year.
The White House has provided the most significant financial and military aid to Israel in its history, and it is well aware of the influence of powerful AIPAC lobbies on the outcome of its elections. It knows that "any position against the Israeli government by any member of Congress who wants to be re-elected is political suicide, and this is also confirmed in presidential elections." Despite these facts, the deliberate leak of these documents by the Pentagon (at this time and with the available evidence) is not logical, and the United States will not sacrifice its alliance with Israel for the sake of elections.
The hacking and leaking of this information by Iran to disrupt Israel's plans is another speculation that is being analyzed in the political-media space. Iran's use of various means to become aware of its goals is not a new topic, and even the possibility of Iran accessing these documents has not been denied by any credible source. However, the question is, if Iran had access to these documents (through any means) to disrupt Israel's plans, why were they published on a channel that is considered close to Iran? The publication of this information would prompt Israel to plan differently, and Iran's efforts to execute a surprise defense would be hindered. Therefore, leaking the documents, even if Iran had access to them, would not be logical.
With the decreasing likelihood of the two speculations mentioned, some analyses point to the existence of a scenario involving the role of conspiracy, with the title that the leak of the documents is a psychological warfare against the Iranian people on the one hand, and disrupting military focus on the other.
This speculation, considering the implausibility of the lack of coordination between the United States and Israel, may be the closest to reality. Ultimately, accepting any of these speculations, regardless of how realistic they are, necessitates greater vigilance on the part of the people and decision-makers to avoid falling into their traps. Tehran, as emphasized by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baqaei, will be prepared to respond to any scenario in a centralized and intelligent manner.
NOURNEWS