NOURNEWS: The 14th presidential election could have had acceptable standards of participation, but in the end, predictions and surveys were not very accurate. Initially, before the final candidate names were announced by the Guardian Council, "competition" was the main concern for political activists. However, by the end, the concern shifted to "participation."
The idea that "competition leads to participation" did not hold true in the first round of the presidential election. This doesn't mean the idea is wrong, but even in an election with reasonable competition, where major factions had their representatives, the participation rate did not exceed 40%. This raises questions about the direct relationship between competition and participation. Some questions about the recent election results include:
1.In the last two elections (the 2021 presidential and 2022 parliamentary elections), the main analysis for participation below 50% focused on the quality of competition. Why, then, in a more competitive election than the previous presidential one, did participation not only fail to increase but actually decrease by almost 9%?
2.Should we consider all the 60% who did not vote as opponents of the Islamic Republic?
3.After the 2021 election, where participation did not reach 50%, what rational, expert, and sociological approaches did governing bodies, political groups, and media take to ensure that this trend of low participation did not continue?
4.What can or should the authorities, political groups, and election campaigns do in response to these unpleasant occurrences?
The reality is that the 60% who did not vote is a significant number that cannot be dismissed as mere "indifference." Many of us, especially in the last few days before voting, encountered people who believed that voting was "pointless." This phrase reflects a lot of analysis and reality. How did a significant part of Iranian society come to conclude that the most modern and cost-effective way for society to influence their destiny—elections—is pointless?
This conclusion likely stems from real or perceived experiences that the society has gone through. Therefore, the right approach to this part of society is not to blame or accuse them. When major issues remain unresolved despite changes in governments with different political leanings, and when the negative impacts of these issues on people's daily lives have increased over time, it's natural for the phrase "pointless" to gain traction. Moreover, political disputes often exacerbate this sentiment. For example, in election debates, a former president's entire eight-year term might be described only in negative terms, reinforcing the belief that the new leaders might follow the same path as their predecessors.
It seems that everyone should pay attention to the sentiment behind the phrase "pointless." However, not all of the 60% who did not vote can be grouped together as opponents of the system, as some foreign media and opponents of the Islamic Republic have done, eagerly labeling the majority of non-voters as "overthrowers."
It's undeniable that some Iranians, like people in other countries, oppose the system and its policies. The claim of overthrowing the system is not hidden, with various groups, media, and lobbies actively working towards this goal. However, a significant portion of those who didn't vote, as seen from their positions on social media, clearly do not align with these outside opposition groups. Decades of unrealistic promises from these groups have not gone beyond their imagination, especially following the protests over Mahsa Amini's death. Therefore, many of those who didn't vote still care about the country's progress and have no connection with the system's opponents. Their criticism likely stems from the authorities' shortcomings and economic hardships, suggesting that reconciliation and regaining their attention is possible. Their demand is for a more effective political system and the fulfillment of their rightful needs.
In contrast, the system's effectiveness or ineffectiveness doesn't impact the goals of the outside opposition, who only seek system change. If domestic decision-makers had taken the 50% non-participation rate seriously after the 2021 election and worked wisely to address people's demands and improve their economic conditions, the parliamentary election might have seen better participation. Many people, whether satisfied or not, observed the shrinking of their economic conditions despite hearing reports of officials' successes.
Ultimately, it seems that the only solution for addressing the dissatisfaction of those who still maintain ties with the system was to enhance the competitiveness of the presidential election, hoping that increased competition would boost participation. However, restoring damaged trust or emotional separation from the system is not an overnight task.
Nevertheless, this election also had positive aspects that could help restore social capital. The non-overthrow segment of the boycotters can be brought back into the fold. The presidential election had defensible standards of competition, integrity, and security. Political groups participated vigorously, fully supporting their candidates. The candidates' positions showed a consensus on existing problems and a declared intention to solve them. The positive aspect of this election is the hope for improvement and problem-solving. This hope should be used to strengthen internal cohesion and reconcile with those who boycotted the election.
NOURNEWS