News ID : 176929
Publish Date : 6/4/2024 9:24:24 PM
Fate of U.S.-Saudi-Israel security pact under Biden administration

Fate of U.S.-Saudi-Israel security pact under Biden administration

NOURNEWS – Israel's attack on Gaza was a dive into a quagmire. Today, the Zionist regime is facing conditions that no one could have imagined before Hamas' surprise operation. Tel Aviv is trapped, and the regime's illusory security seems more vulnerable than ever. Can the U.S. provide security for the Zionists in such circumstances?

A year ago, if a media outlet had claimed that Hamas would attack the occupied territories, capture dozens of Israelis, engage the Zionists for months on the northern borders of occupied Palestine with Hezbollah in Lebanon, have the Ansarullah movement in Yemen attack U.S., Israeli, and allied ships, see the occupied territories targeted by Iranian missiles, witness Americans and Europeans rise up in defense of Palestine and call for their governments to cut ties with Israel, observe Europeans lining up to recognize an independent State of Palestine, and see protesters within the occupied territories demanding an agreement with Hamas, few would have considered these scenarios plausible. Yet, this "dream" for Palestine and "nightmare" for Israel has come true.

In the past eight months, the Zionist regime has squandered its remaining international credibility, gaining nothing but condemnation from the global public opinion and the specter of indictment by international courts. However, all that Tel Aviv lost in this war pales in comparison to the shattering of the "deterrence" myth, a myth that was the primary guarantor of Zionist security. Now, the U.S. is attempting to revive some of this lost security through new pacts in the Middle East. The White House's old prescription for this scenario is a security pact between Washington, Tel Aviv, and Riyadh.


Why Saudi Arabia?

Since the presidency of Franklin D. Roosevelt, Saudi Arabia has been defined as a vital interest for the U.S. in the Middle East. Post-World War II, Washington sought to maintain this strategic country in West Asia and the Arab world in its alliance by providing military support to the Saudis. However, in recent years, the Saudis have demonstrated that they understand the coordinates and requirements of a declining America and a world transitioning from unipolarity. In the emerging new orders, they lean not only towards regional countries but also towards China and Russia.

This Saudi proximity to other powers is unwelcome news for Israel, the primary U.S. ally, as it flounders in the quagmire of its own making. Hence, the Americans are scrambling to woo back old ally Saudi Arabia and buy time for Israel's survival, especially with the U.S. presidential elections looming, where success in this regard could be a tempting card for Joe Biden.


U.S. goals

Establishing peaceful relations between Tel Aviv and Riyadh has always been an American desire to solidify its foothold in the Middle East. Even if Biden wanted to give up on this dream, it is impossible for the Republicans in Congress to approve a treaty that does not include normalization with Israel.

The U.S. aims to curb Saudi Arabia's growing ties with China and Russia, especially in areas such as telecommunications and military technology. This goal is understood and pursued in the context of maintaining the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global oil trade and countering China's influence in the Persian Gulf. Washington also seeks Saudi cooperation to stabilize oil prices, which could affect the global economy and U.S. domestic energy costs, especially ahead of the 2024 presidential election.


Saudi Arabia's interests

Prior to the Zionist regime's attack on Gaza, Saudi Arabia sought a mutual defense pact with the U.S., which would include a commitment to defend each other in the event of an attack, similar to U.S. defense treaties with NATO allies. Riyadh was also interested in acquiring advanced U.S. military technology, including F-35 fighter jets, MQ-9 Reaper drones, and precision-guided munitions, similar to what the U.S. has promised the UAE as part of its normalization deal with Israel. As part of this agreement, Saudi Arabia was pursuing a civilian nuclear program. The price of this agreement before the Gaza war was Saudi recognition of Israel. But today, eight months after the war that led to the death of more than 36,000 Palestinians, including women and children, it is unclear what price countries that shake hands and make a pact with Tel Aviv will have to pay.

It is also unclear whether the U.S. defense guarantees for Saudi Arabia, expected to be less than a full NATO-style pact, will be included in a treaty that requires Congress approval.

The agreement on nuclear cooperation may also face opposition in Congress, where many lawmakers have condemned Riyadh for its intervention in Yemen, oil price volatility, and the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. However, it appears that if Israel is part of the upcoming treaty, Biden can gain Congress and Senate approval.

Matthew Miller, a spokesman for the U.S. State Department, said that the components of the security pact would include interconnected elements such as normalization with Israel and a path to forming a Palestinian state. " None go forward without the others," he said.


What will Israel do?

Israel stands to gain politically and economically from normalization with Saudi Arabia, and a pact with Riyadh could pave the way for broader acceptance of Israel in the Muslim world. However, the right-wing Zionist government is reluctant to make significant concessions to the Palestinians, which Saudi Arabia demands as part of any agreement.

The Saudis are demanding tangible and irreversible steps toward the establishment of a Palestinian state in exchange for normalizing relations with Israel. But Israel's right-wing government refuses even minimal concessions to the Palestinian Authority.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shown no willingness to support a two-state solution. Additionally, the coalition that brought him back to power includes far-right elements strongly opposed to giving concessions to the Palestinians and instead dream of annexing the West Bank and Gaza to the occupied territories.

In this context, Netanyahu constantly faces the threat of his coalition partners leaving and his government collapsing, making it impractical for him to offer meaningful concessions to the Palestinians. Given these circumstances, it seems unlikely that the fate of the Israel-Saudi security pact, which also involves the United States, will be decided during Netanyahu's tenure, especially as he doesn't even have a clear plan for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Biden would be wise to look for more probable opportunities and better cards to play in the upcoming elections.



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