NOURNEWS: According to the latest estimates from Iran’s Statistical Center, approximately 9,521,000 elderly individuals are living in Iran, of whom 5,867,000 are between 60 and 70 years old, about 2,658,000 are between 70 and 80, and 966,000 are above 80 years old.
Given its rapid growth rate, Iran’s elderly population (individuals above 60 years of age) is rapidly increasing, and It can be said that the growth rate and number of Iran’s elderly population is higher than that of many countries in the world. This fact alarms the bell reminding us that we must take required measurements to provide their needs.
Statistical estimations indicate that with the continuation of the current trend, Iran’s population will decline by about 50 million individuals, reaching 31 million people over the next 80 years. If the population pyramid shifts in favor of the elderly population, it can be expected that the social balance will change, leading to increased consumption and expenses, mainly related to the heavy costs of healthcare and caregiving, while societal dynamism decreases.
The United Nations' studies on population indicate that the world's population is generally aging, and this trend will accelerate in the future. The proportion of the world's elderly population (aged 65 and over) was about 9.3 percent in 2020. With the presumption that the fertility rate will remain stable at its current rate, the world's elderly population is projected to double by 2050, reaching 22.8 percent.
"Population decline poses dangers including changes in nurturing systems and ethical concepts, decline in societal and economic enjoyment, decline in political authority, and changes in the composition of religions," said Marjan Masoudi, a psychologist, while discussing the causes and challenges regarding the decline in birthrates.
“Therefore, we must have precise planning to solve population decline as a challenge.”
On the implications of population decline, Masoudi said, "The generation gap caused by the disruption of balance among the population of different generations, the elimination of familial safety nets for the elderly population, the decrease in the resilience of parents and children, and the decline in family strength are among the societal and cultural consequences of aging, which can be observed in large numbers in the country."
She added that developing countries like Iran are making efforts to compensate for their population decline in various ways, noting that "population is a strength for developing countries, and if these countries lack human capital, they will lag behind other nations in the path of development. The population decline in these countries equals regression."
Elderly population is expected to increase three to fourfold, explained Masoudi, noting that “Aging individuals grapple with chronic diseases, physical limitations, and various complications. Amidst warnings about the negative consequences of a rapidly aging population, Iranian couples are hesitant to have children. Uncertainty about future plans, economic instability, and concerns about providing a secure future for their offspring contribute to this reluctance.” She emphasized that this serves as a warning for the country, as without a solution for the declining population, we will encounter numerous problems in the future.
The decline in birthrate and the reluctance of young couples to have children are rooted in social and economic factors, with the undeniable influence of financial burdens. However, the lifestyle of Iranians has evolved, which may contribute to the declining population. Part of this transition is influenced by the proliferation of a universal modern lifestyle, which may not align with the cultural and civilizational needs of certain regions, such as Iran.
NOURNEWS