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What are the reasons for the unlikely military option against Iran?
the Atlantic Council

What are the reasons for the unlikely military option against Iran?

"Using these strategies and exploiting the mistakes of its enemies, Iran has become a key player in the Middle East and has repeatedly challenged the interests of the United States, Israel, and its Arab rivals," the Atlantic Council think tank wrote.

NOURNEWS - The Atlantic Council think tank wrote in an article written by Abbas Gheidari on Tuesday: “Will Iran's nuclear program be curbed by military action? What will be the consequences in terms of side effects and regional instability.”

Since the 9/11 attacks and the start of the war on terror, the possibility of war with Iran has always been raised. This has not happened for a number of reasons, including Washington's strategic prioritization of Afghanistan and Iraq.

If the United States or Israel had attacked Iran two decades ago, they would have faced a country with inefficient armed forces equipped with outdated military equipment. But despite numerous sanctions and restrictions, Iran has been able to improve its combat capabilities by learning and sometimes copying US military technology in Iraq and Afghanistan.

At the same time, Iran has used several effective strategies to increase its deterrent capabilities, including increasing the budget for research and development of the defense industry and the armed forces (especially for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps); changing the nature of military doctrine and emphasizing asymmetric and low-cost tactics; development and expansion of nuclear facilities; establish and strengthen allied militant groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Syria, and the Gaza Strip; and achieving an irreversible level of nuclear power.

Using these strategies and exploiting the mistakes of its enemies, Iran has become a key player in the Middle East and has repeatedly challenged the interests of the United States, Israel, and its Arab rivals. This increase in power reached a point where the Iranian armed forces confronted the American forces directly.

The shooting down of the Global Hawk spy drone on June 20, 2019, and the firing of ballistic missiles at Iraq's Ain al-Assad airbase on January 8, 2020, in retaliation for the assassination of General Soleimani are examples of this confrontation.

With the change of government in Iran and the appointment of a new president, the new Iranian diplomacy team has abandoned the previous team's principles of goodwill, trust-building, and optimism, which leads to an atmosphere of compromise and understanding.

Simultaneously with this change of approach, the Revolutionary Guards held a large Prophet's 17th wargame, demonstrating the improvement of electronic warfare capabilities and the widespread and effective use of suicide drones against small targets.

In addition, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired several long-range and short-range ballistic missiles, as well as suicide drones, at a life-size replica of Israel's Dimona nuclear facility in the heart of Iran's central deserts.

Maj. Gen. Gholam-Ali Rashid, Commander of Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, recently stated in an interview that if Iran is attacked, "the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately attack all centers, bases, routes, and spaces used for the passage and origin of aggression based on operational plans and the practitioner will be hit hard."

Israel, which has always reserved the right to take preemptive action against Iran, has reduced its rhetoric against Tehran in recent days.

On December 28, 2021, shortly after the end of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps exercise, Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett declared that "Israel is not opposed to any agreement. A good deal is good."

US military officials have acknowledged Iran's growing military power, especially in the field of ballistic missiles. "Iran's missiles have become a more immediate threat than its nuclear program. The Iranians can now effectively attack across the breadth and depth of the Middle East. They have the ability to make accurate and large-scale attacks." Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, commander of CENTCOM, told The New Yorker.

There are other factors that make the war with Iran unpleasant. Joe Biden's government is now focusing more on the fragile security situation in Eastern Europe due to the large deployment of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border as well as China's threats to Taiwan.

The United States has withdrawn completely from Afghanistan and reduced and changed the mission of its limited forces in Iraq. The approximate stability of the Syrian crisis also reduces Israel's incentive to engage in an even limited conflict with Iran.

Even if the Vienna talks fail and tensions remain high, military conflict is unlikely, as it would lead to a win-lose situation for all parties.


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