NOURNEWS - The explosion of the port of Beirut and its great financial and human losses, along with the resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Hassan Diab, have created complicated political, economic and social conditions for the country.
Tomorrow, Thursday, the Lebanese parliament is scheduled to decide on its dissolution and the holding of early elections.
The available evidence shows that the parliament opposes holding early elections. Currently, the only group strongly seeking early elections is the Lebanese Forces Party, led by Samir Geagea.
The party is trying to tighten the pressure on elections by encouraging lawmakers of so called March 14 to resign from parliament. Al-Mustaqbal, led by Saad Hariri, is reluctant to hold early elections due to its eagerness to return to the post of prime minister, and it seems that Hariri and Walid Jumblatt will once again leave Geage alone in this campaign. .
The next development in the Lebanese political climate is the formation of a new government with the agreement of political groups. A strategy that seems more viable, especially since it does not require much debate and political controversy among Lebanese parties.
Although Lebanon was economically miserable before the bombing of the port of Beirut, the most important challenge facing the future Lebanese government is to return to pre-explosion conditions, which are estimated to cost at least $ 15 billion.
Lebanon was the most indebted government in the world compared to the size of its economy before the explosion of the port of Beirut. It owes 1.5 times its gross national product, or about $ 100 billion in foreign debt. Corruption in Lebanon ranks 136th out of 175 countries, and according to the Wall Street Journal, quoting the US Treasury Department, the amount of money looted from Lebanon is about $ 800 billion.
This structural crisis in the Lebanese economy, coupled with the escalation of economic sanctions in recent months, has pushed the value of the Lebanese national currency against the dollar from 1,500 lira to 8,000 lira per dollar,The fact that in the sense of disappearing is a large part of the middle class of Lebanese citizens.
The structural problems of the economy, along with the devastation left by the Beirut bombing, will make responding to economic demands the first priority of the next Lebanese government, a priority that the government's empty coffers will not be able to achieve and will divert all eyes to foreign sources.
The visit of French President Emmanuel Macron to Lebanon and the subsequent holding of a webinar on aid to the reconstruction of Beirut was practically the first step in attracting foreign aid to the Lebanese government, but the webinar was attended by 36 countries and international organizations and $ 270 million was raised to compensate for the $ 15 billion damage caused by the Beirut port bombing, which of course cannot be a promising result.
Although the amount pledged to help rebuild Beirut is not significant, its allocation is subject to certain conditions, the most important of which is political reform.
Although Macron did not attend to impower the March 14 during his visit to Lebanon, , and in a symbolic meeting with Hezbollah representative Mohammed Raad, he sent a different message to Lebanese political leaders, but the final approach of the West in Lebanon is not to help strengthen the resistance movement, led by Hezbollah, because by not inviting Iran, Russia and Turkey to the webinar to help rebuild Lebanon, this policy was practically unveiled.
Hezbollah, as the strongest political current that is free from the economic corruption of its politicians and has a high popular base, can play a decisive role in the future course of Lebanese developments.
Significant popular support, economic health, and active acting power at home and abroad have shaped the group's role in shaping Lebanon's future trends in the political, economic, and social spheres.
Certainly, the three countries of Iran, Russia and Turkey, in cooperation with China, can also be considered as reliable political and economic support for Lebanon in interaction with the future Lebanese government.
On the other hand; Lebanese Hezbollah Secretary General Seyed Hassan Nasrallah will deliver a speech on Friday, August 15, on the anniversary of the 33-day war.
In his first statement since the Beirut bombing, the Lebanese Hezbollah secretary general postponed his political stance on the incident, if in a speech on Friday, the Hezbollah leader outlines the resistance and allied developments in Lebanon it can be expected the answer to the important ambiguities that have obscured the future prospects of this country to be clarified.
BY: Mohammad Ghaderi
NOURNEWS