The trend in changes to the Earth's average temperature presents a clear picture of accelerating global warming. The baseline used for comparison in these data is the 1850–1900 period, which is regarded as the preindustrial level, with temperature increases measured relative to that period. According to the data presented, this indicator stood at zero degrees Celsius at the baseline point but began its upward trajectory in the decades that followed.

By 1960, the increase in the Earth's average temperature had reached around 0.2 degrees Celsius. This figure rose to approximately 0.24 degrees in 1977, after which the upward slope of the chart became steeper. By 1987, the temperature increase had reached about 0.45 degrees, meaning that in less than three decades, the temperature difference from the preindustrial period had more than doubled.

The trend accelerated further in the following decades. In 1999, the increase in the Earth's average temperature reached approximately 0.69 degrees, while the figure recorded in 2009 was around 0.72 degrees. Although the gap between these two points was not particularly large, the subsequent trajectory shows that the warming trend entered a faster phase in later years.

In 2020, the indicator reached approximately 0.9 degrees Celsius, meaning that the temperature increase relative to the 1850–1900 period had approached one degree. After that, the slope of the curve increased noticeably. In 2023, the recorded temperature increase reached approximately 1.16 degrees, rising to around 1.18 degrees Celsius in 2024.

The year 2025 showed a temporary retreat in this trend. The indicator fell to approximately 0.95 degrees that year, but this decline does not mean that the long-term warming trend has stopped. Climate data also show that year-to-year changes can be influenced by natural climate variability, while the long-term trend continues to move upward.

According to the published data, the trend rose again in 2026, reaching 1.18 degrees Celsius, a figure roughly in line with that of 2024. It should be noted, however, that 2026 data in updated climate datasets may be revised or changed as updates are made and because the year is not yet complete. Our World in Data has also stated that it updates its temperature data based on revised Copernicus and ERA5 information.

The important point is not simply that the indicator has reached a higher figure; the shape of the curve is even more significant. The published charts begin at zero during the baseline period, reach 0.2 degrees in 1960, 0.45 degrees in 1987, 0.69 degrees in 1999, 0.9 degrees in 2020, and the range of 1.16 to 1.18 degrees in 2023 and 2024. The decline in 2025 and the return to 1.18 degrees in 2026 also show that short-term fluctuations have not erased the long-term trajectory.

From a scientific perspective, an increase of one or two degrees in the average temperature of the entire planet is not a small figure, because this indicator reflects extensive temperature changes across the Earth's land areas, oceans and atmospheric system. NASA has also emphasized that global warming does not occur equally across all regions or at all times, and that natural variability can produce annual fluctuations. However, the trend of recent decades clearly points to more rapid warming of the Earth.

The main driver of this trend is the rising concentration of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity. Our World in Data identifies emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases as the primary cause of the increase in average global temperatures.

Overall, the figures have risen from zero degrees relative to the 1850–1900 baseline to 1.18 degrees in the 2026 data, following a trajectory that has included temporary declines but whose overall direction remains upward. This trend has transformed global warming from a theoretical warning into a measurable and ongoing reality.

But rising global temperatures are not merely a number on a curve. Behind these figures lies a chain of escalating damage: intensifying heat waves and droughts, more widespread wildfires, melting glaciers and rising sea levels, pressure on water resources and agriculture, declining biodiversity, and growing damage from floods and severe weather events. The continuation of this trend could place increasing pressure on food security, human health, infrastructure and national economies, meaning that every further rise in the temperature curve could carry a real and heavy cost for human life and the future of the planet.