Saudi Arabia’s efforts to form a global coalition against Yemen, ostensibly to manage the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and suppress Yemeni resistance forces, could push the region toward the outbreak of another potentially uncontrollable crisis.

Over the past four decades, Saudi Arabia and Yemen have remained at odds politically and militarily, largely due to Riyadh’s disparaging attitude toward parts of Yemen’s social and religious structure. Saudi policies contributed to dangerous divisions within Yemen’s tribal society.

Saudi Arabia’s aggressive confrontation with the Houthis, coupled with its use of Yemen’s weak central government as a tool of influence, drove the Houthis to develop a powerful defensive structure. They sought to confront both the government of former Yemeni dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh and Saudi Arabia.

During this period, particularly toward the end of Saleh’s rule, fierce internal clashes erupted between tribes aligned with the central government and the Houthis. Saudi Arabia provided the former Yemeni dictator with the bulk of his military support. Following the collapse of the former Yemeni government, part of Yemeni society gravitated toward a new political order centered around the Houthis. This ultimately led to the emergence of a powerful military organization known as Ansarullah.

Composed in part of former Yemeni army commanders, Ansarullah demonstrated its battlefield capabilities over the years, altering the balance of power both domestically and regionally.

Ansarullah based its strategy of resistance on unconditional support for the Axis of Resistance and the Palestinian people, a policy that raised concerns among regional and international actors, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the United States and Israel.

On March 26, 2015, Saudi Arabia formed an international coalition involving 14 countries and, with U.S. intelligence and logistical support, launched an operation dubbed “Decisive Storm” against Ansarullah. The operation became one of the region’s largest international crises at the time.

Despite the Saudi-led coalition’s brutal killing of Yemeni civilians and destruction of the country’s infrastructure, Riyadh ultimately capitulated to the will of the Yemeni people after nearly eight years of devastating war, particularly against Ansarullah supporters, and more than $350 billion in expenditure. Saudi Arabia eventually reached an agreement with Ansarullah.

Saudi Arabia is now once again making a miscalculation. Under pressure from the United States and Israel, Riyadh is seeking to form another international coalition with the aim of once again imposing an unjust war on the Yemeni people.

Given its strategic geographic position, Ansarullah has sought to leverage the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in response to what it views as Saudi Arabia’s unjust blockade. By seeking to establish a new form of control over the strait, Ansarullah is attempting to alter the political and military equation.

Riyadh, rather than seeking an understanding with its southern neighbor, is now turning to military means and aggressive tactics to establish control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Such a move would inevitably expose the region to another major crisis.

The new Saudi-led coalition will ultimately fail, just as previous efforts did. With its high deterrence capabilities and control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Ansarullah will be able to shift the battlefield equation in favor of the Yemeni people.