With the United States failing to achieve its objectives in its military campaign against Iran, Washington now appears poised to launch what it claims will be its most severe economic war against the Islamic Republic.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed that Washington is preparing to impose new economic measures against Iran next week. He described the measures as unprecedented in the history of economic sanctions imposed on any country.
In a televised interview, Bessent said, “Expect more news to be announced next week,” adding that the U.S. strategy is based on two parallel tracks: intensifying the economic isolation imposed on Iran and enforcing a naval blockade aimed at disrupting the movement of Iranian commercial vessels.
The U.S. Treasury secretary said the blockade would directly target the Iranian authorities’ main sources of revenue by restricting maritime trade.
His remarks came after U.S. President Donald Trump spoke of the possibility of easing military pressure on Iran. Over the past 15 months, the United States, together with Israel, has attacked Iran three times, but has so far failed to achieve any of its stated objectives. The destruction of Iran’s nuclear program, the elimination of its missile capabilities, and the dismantling of Iran-backed forces in the region have been among the main goals pursued by the United States and Israel in these wars. At various points, senior U.S. and Israeli officials have also spoken of seeking to overthrow the Islamic Republic.
Yet, according to most American and European media outlets and political analysts, the wars imposed on Iran have failed to achieve their objectives. Iran still maintains its nuclear program, while its missile and drone capabilities continue to expand. The regional “resistance front,” despite suffering significant losses, continues to play a political and military role.
Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed despite two weeks of U.S. attacks on southern Iran.
Under these circumstances, the Trump administration appears to have, at least temporarily, abandoned—or reduced the likelihood of—using military force to impose its demands on Iran. Instead, the administration is seeking to revive its previous strategy of “maximum pressure” in an effort to bring the Islamic Republic to its knees economically.
The U.S. Treasury secretary’s threat can be viewed in this context. However, it should not be forgotten that there are not many new weapons left in the U.S. economic arsenal to use against Iran. In terms of sanctions, there is virtually no Iranian economic or financial sector outside the U.S. sanctions regime that the Treasury Department could now bring under sanctions.
The naval blockade of Iran, meanwhile, began months ago and, according to Trump, has now become “a steel wall” preventing goods from entering or leaving Iranian ports. Therefore, it does not appear that anything fundamentally new is likely to happen on the maritime blockade front, although Washington could attempt to close the remaining loopholes in the blockade.
That leaves the possibility of a land blockade of Iran. If the United States were able to effectively enforce such a strategy, it could impose even greater economic pressure on Iran than it is currently experiencing. However, this strategy could prove considerably more difficult to implement than a naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman.
Iran shares land borders with five other countries, stretching from its southeastern border with Pakistan to its southwestern border with Iraq. Its Caspian Sea ports could also provide Iran with a route to Russia and, from there, to China. Given this vast geographic area, it would be difficult for Washington to closely monitor and enforce U.S. sanctions on the transit of goods between Iran and its neighboring countries.
This does not, of course, mean that new U.S. measures involving sanctions or a naval or land blockade would fail to put pressure on the Iranian economy. Such measures would undoubtedly create serious difficulties for ordinary Iranians. However, there are doubts as to whether such an approach would ultimately force the Islamic Republic to surrender to U.S. demands.
For this reason, it could be argued that part of the threat issued by the U.S. Treasury secretary regarding “the most unprecedented economic isolation in history against any country” is intended to ease political pressure on the Trump administration, which is currently facing criticism over its failure to achieve its war objectives against Iran.
In other words, with U.S. military power having failed to force Iran into submission and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz still facing serious disruption, the Trump administration wants to demonstrate that it has devised a plan to cripple Iran’s economy, in the hope of creating an image of victory for Trump.
This is particularly significant given that the U.S. midterm elections are less than three months away. If American public opinion—including a significant portion of Republican voters—fails to conclude that the Trump administration has achieved, or is on course to achieve, major gains in its war against Iran, Republican candidates’ chances of winning the elections could decline, inflicting heavy political losses on the party in power.
Nevertheless, it would not be surprising if, after the November elections, Trump once again abandoned his strategy of economic warfare against Iran and sought to test his chances of success in a military campaign for yet another time—particularly if, as expected, the new U.S. economic offensive against Iran fails to produce the desired results for Trump.
Until then, Iran’s military capabilities and economic resilience will play a significant role in shaping Washington’s calculations and potentially altering U.S. plans.