The economic impact of the war against Iran is now more visible than ever in the daily lives of Americans. The latest estimates indicate that the continued tensions have not only disrupted global markets but also substantially increased the cost of living for US families.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, estimates that since the outbreak of the conflict on February 28, the average US household has incurred nearly $1,000 in additional expenses. The increase is largely driven by higher energy, food, and other consumer goods prices, directly raising household spending.
The report coincides with the latest US economic data, showing that inflation in May reached its highest level in three years. Rising energy costs and volatility in global markets have been cited as key drivers of inflation, while the continued tensions between Tehran and Washington have added further uncertainty to the US economic outlook.
According to Zandi's analysis, the largest financial burden has come from higher gasoline prices. As the conflict intensified, US fuel prices climbed, with the average price reaching $4.56 per gallon on May 21. Although prices have since eased to below $4 per gallon, the temporary surge imposed significant additional costs on consumers.
Based on the estimate, the average American has spent about $300 more on gasoline since the war began. The calculation is based solely on regular gasoline and does not include premium fuel, which many luxury vehicles, including Mercedes-Benz and BMW models, require for optimal performance. In some states, premium gasoline costs up to $1 more per gallon than regular fuel.
The impact of higher energy prices has extended well beyond gas stations. Rising diesel costs have increased transportation expenses throughout supply chains, from moving agricultural products and manufactured goods to shipping imports from ports. As a result, retail prices for many goods have risen, forcing consumers to pay more.
Zandi estimates that, in the food sector alone, the average US household has spent approximately $200 more since the conflict began. Higher transportation, distribution, and storage costs have been identified as the primary drivers of these price increases.
Analysts note that energy markets are typically among the first to react to geopolitical tensions. Any concern over oil supply security or disruptions to energy transit routes quickly drives up oil and petroleum product prices, with those increases eventually spreading across the broader economy.
With tensions between Iran and US continuing and no lasting agreement to end the conflict in place, concerns over persistent inflationary pressures remain. Many economists believe that if the current situation continues, the cost of living for American households will keep rising, with the effects becoming increasingly evident not only in fuel prices but also in the cost of essential goods, services, and transportation.