Nournews: Regardless of our own feelings as Iranians wounded by an unjust act of aggression, the U.S. president’s visit to China is far more than a mere diplomatic event. In the truest sense of the term, it is part of the architecture shaping the regional security environment and, at the same time, an important variable in the formation of the future global order. Without exaggeration or understatement, it must be said that China–U.S. relations can no longer be explained through the simple binary of “competition or cooperation.” Rather, this is a deeply intertwined relationship marked by economic interdependence, technological rivalry, and geopolitical friction—one in which every move creates ripple effects across multiple regions of the world.
China and the United States are the two principal pillars of the global economy and power structure. Yet unlike during the Cold War, these two powers exist within a “deep network of mutual interdependence.” From supply chains and energy markets to financial investments and control of maritime routes, neither side can completely eliminate the other without suffering serious consequences itself. The United States seeks to contain China’s technological rise and geopolitical influence, particularly in areas such as artificial intelligence, advanced industries, and influence across the Global South. China, meanwhile, is attempting to erode the unipolar order and gradually construct a multipolar system centered around itself and its Asian and African partners. What is important, however, is that the rivalry between these two powers is no longer confined to the Pacific Ocean; it now stretches from Europe to the Middle East and even Africa. Under such circumstances, any dialogue between Washington and Beijing inevitably passes through major global flashpoints.
A Trip Beyond Trade
The recent visit of the U.S. president to China carries an agenda that goes far beyond tariffs or bilateral trade disputes. At its core, the trip is an effort to manage “controlled tension” between the two superpowers—a tension that, if left unchecked, could send shockwaves through the entire global economy. On the surface, the agenda includes issues such as trade balance, technology exports, investment, and financial matters. Beneath the surface, however, lie far heavier geopolitical concerns: Taiwan, the South China Sea, and, above all, the Middle East—particularly the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran.
What makes this trip especially significant is its coincidence with an extremely tense situation in the Middle East and direct confrontation between the United States and Iran. Under these conditions, China is no longer merely a distant observer; it is a direct stakeholder in the region’s stability or instability. More than 50 percent of China’s oil imports pass through routes connected to the Persian Gulf. Any tension in the Strait of Hormuz therefore constitutes a direct threat to Beijing’s energy security. From this perspective, Iran is not a marginal issue but rather a “strategic knot” in Washington–Beijing discussions.
From the American perspective, Iran at this stage is not merely a regional issue but also part of the broader deterrence equation vis-à-vis China. Washington fully understands that instability in the Middle East can place China’s energy and trade routes under pressure while simultaneously increasing Beijing’s geopolitical costs. China, for its part, views Iran not only as an energy partner but also as a key link in its long-term projects in West Asia—from transit corridors to the Belt and Road Initiative. Therefore, Iran’s stability is a strategic necessity for Beijing, not simply a political preference.
Under such conditions, the status of the Strait of Hormuz has become one of the most sensitive issues in the unofficial talks between Washington and Beijing. This waterway is not merely vital for Iran and the Arab states; it is also a critical energy artery for China and even Europe. Should tensions escalate in the region, China would face a difficult choice between two costs: either intensifying diplomatic confrontation with the United States in defense of energy stability, or accepting the economic pressure caused by disruptions in oil supply. It is precisely this equation that has elevated the issue of Iran from a regional crisis to a global matter.
According to these same calculations, Beijing—and Xi Jinping personally—has proposed a four-point initiative aimed at resolving the Strait of Hormuz crisis and establishing a ceasefire between Iran and the United States, a proposal that has reportedly been welcomed by Iran as well. The recent visit of Abbas Araghchi to China and his intensive negotiations with China’s foreign minister represent another indication of Iran’s positive approach toward Beijing’s role in the new crisis. News and analytical sources have even described Pakistan’s mediation initiative as the result of China’s hidden guidance and intervention.
With these considerations in mind, Trump’s trip to China should be understood within the framework of “global crisis management,” rather than simple bilateral diplomacy. Iran, the Middle East, and especially the Strait of Hormuz function in this visit as hidden yet decisive variables. Although these issues may appear marginal or muted in official statements, within the negotiating rooms Iran will remain one of the key points of mutual understanding between the two powers—a point where the global rivalry between China and the United States intersects with the world’s most sensitive energy geography.
The reality is that this trip is less about China or the United States themselves and more about the future order of the world. Yet this order contains one central and fundamental variable that neither side can afford to ignore: Iran. Thus, the future security arrangements of the world cannot be determined—or even examined—in the absence of an important entity called Iran.