Nournews: The global economy in 2026 is experiencing one of its most complex periods—an era in which U.S. policies under the leadership of Donald Trump have emerged as one of the most significant drivers of change, shaping market trajectories and capital flows. The combination of aggressive geopolitical strategies, protectionist trade approaches, and pressure on supply chains has subjected the structure of the international economy to profound transformations.

According to estimates, global economic growth in 2026 is projected to remain around 3 percent—a figure below the long-term average, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum. Under high-risk scenarios, this growth could even fall to the 2 to 2.5 percent range, clearly reflecting the impact of geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions.

One of the most important drivers of this situation has been the rise in geopolitical risk. Trump’s foreign policies—particularly in the Middle East and in relation to Iran—have intensified tensions and heightened uncertainty in global markets. Within this framework, military confrontations between the United States and Iran, along with disruptions in maritime navigation, have at times led to restrictions on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage through which nearly 20 percent of global oil trade flows. These disruptions have delivered immediate shocks to energy markets, pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel at certain points in 2026.

Rising energy prices, as one of the primary drivers of inflation, have contributed to keeping global inflation at elevated levels. Estimates suggest that energy shocks alone could add approximately 0.5 to 0.8 percentage points to global inflation. This situation has placed central banks in a difficult position, as they must simultaneously combat inflation while preventing economic recession.

In the field of global trade, the Trump administration’s protectionist and tariff policies have reduced the efficiency of supply chains. Data indicate that the global commodities market in 2026 has exhibited uneven behavior. While energy prices and precious metals such as gold have trended upward due to rising geopolitical risk, some industrial and agricultural commodities have experienced relative declines due to weakening global demand and trade restrictions. This divergence signals disruptions in global trade flows and a restructuring of supply and demand patterns.

Financial markets have also reacted strongly to these developments. Rising uncertainty has driven investors toward safe-haven assets. Gold has seen increased demand under such conditions, reinforcing its role as a reliable store of value. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar continues to function as the world’s primary reserve currency and tends to strengthen during periods of crisis, although this trend has been accompanied by greater volatility.

In contrast, emerging markets and riskier assets have faced intensified pressure. Higher financing costs, capital outflows, and heightened sensitivity to political developments have exposed these markets to severe fluctuations. Countries heavily dependent on energy imports have been particularly vulnerable to rising prices.

In the energy sector, the outlook for supply and demand remains fragile. Global oil demand continues to grow and is expected to increase by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day, while any new tensions could disrupt supply. This potential imbalance has kept energy markets in an unstable state.

At the regional level, the effects of these developments have been distributed unevenly. Asian economies have experienced slower growth, while some Middle Eastern countries have underperformed expectations due to political tensions and energy volatility. This trend illustrates how macro-level policy impacts are reflected unevenly across different regions of the world.

Overall, the global economy has entered a period more dependent on politics than ever before. Political decisions—particularly in the United States—are transmitted rapidly to markets, triggering chain reactions. Rising geopolitical risk, increasing volatility, strengthening safe-haven assets, and slowing economic growth are among the defining characteristics of this era—an era that can be described as the age of “structural uncertainty” in the global economy.