These days, the city of Geneva has become a focal point of global developments. On the one hand, Iran–US nuclear negotiations were held, hosted by the Omani embassy. On the other, Switzerland’s foreign ministry announced a meeting among Russia, the United States and Ukraine. Regardless of the outcomes of these two processes, one shared reality is evident: Europe has no effective presence at either table.
While all participating parties have at least gained the opportunity to convey their views and exert relative influence over the course of the negotiations, Europe has been deprived even of this minimum level of engagement. This exclusion is not a temporary occurrence but rather reflects shifting power balances and the redefinition of actors’ positions within a global order in transition.
Structural Breach of Commitments and the Erosion of Trust
Europe’s record in the Iran and Russia dossiers suggests that an approach of “maximum demands without reciprocal commitment” has become a behavioral pattern. In the case of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), European states not only failed to operationalize their economic commitments, but the mechanisms they promised also proved ineffective. The incomplete or halted implementation of certain provisions of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, along with alignment with political pressure campaigns, contributed to the erosion of mutual trust.
In the Russian case as well, from Moscow’s perspective, extensive financial and military support for Ukraine, the freezing of assets and developments related to NATO were perceived as violations of prior commitments. As a result, Europe has faced a crisis of confidence in both dossiers — a crisis that now manifests itself in its exclusion from decision-making processes. In an environment where trust is the principal capital of diplomacy, an actor accused of breaching commitments is gradually sidelined from the cycle of influence.
Security Dependence and the Decline of Autonomy
One of the roots of the current situation lies in Europe’s historic dependence on the United States. Over the past eight decades, the security of the continent has largely rested on Washington’s security umbrella. This outsourcing of security gradually extended into political and economic dependence.
Recent instances of what were perceived as dismissive behavior by the United States in certain interactions, along with economic pressures, have shown that at critical junctures Europe possesses limited independent decision-making power. Although European officials have spoken at gatherings such as Davos and Munich about strengthening indigenous defense capabilities, the gap between the rhetoric of autonomy and structural reality remains evident. Europe’s exclusion from the Geneva negotiations can be seen as a sign of this very divide — a gap between the claim of independent agency and the reality of strategic dependence.
A Costly Path Continued
Despite certain media efforts to project a return to independent influence, evidence suggests that Europe continues to insist on its previous course — one grounded in political interventionism, costly alignments and emotionally driven approaches. Unconditional support for certain regional actors, the adoption of unilateral positions and politicization in international forums have contributed less to Europe’s revival than to the deepening of alignments against it.
In a new global order characterized by multipolarity and a more balanced distribution of power, successful actors will be those capable of building trust through an interactive and responsible approach. If Europe seeks to return to the center of these equations, it will be compelled to revise its behavioral model. Otherwise, exclusion from key decision-making tables may become a lasting trend.