The map of countries’ contributions to real global GDP growth in 2026 offers a meaningful picture of the shifting center of gravity of the world economy. According to these projections, real global growth next year will amount to 3.1%. The key question, however, is: where is the engine of this growth?

Asia–Pacific, with a 59.4% share, will play the largest role in driving global economic growth. At the heart of this region stands China, which alone accounts for a striking 26.6% of global growth — more than one quarter of the total. This substantial contribution stems from the combination of its massive GDP measured on a purchasing power parity basis and its higher growth rate compared with many advanced economies. After China comes India, with a 17% share — a position that indicates New Delhi has become the world’s second engine of growth.

The United States, with a 9.9% share, remains an important player, but the gap between it and China and India is considerable. Notably, the combined share of the United States and the European Union in 2026 is estimated at only around 16%, a figure that reflects a marked decline relative to the historical weight of Western economies.

After the three largest economies — China, India and the United States — countries such as Indonesia (3.8%) and Turkey (2.2%) rank among the most significant contributors to global growth. Vietnam (1.6%), the Philippines (1.3%), Bangladesh (1.3%), Malaysia (0.9%), Pakistan (0.9%) and Kazakhstan (0.7%) also play complementary but meaningful roles among Asian economies.

In the Middle East, the region’s total contribution is estimated at 6.4%. Saudi Arabia (1.7%), Turkey (2.2%) and the United Arab Emirates (0.7%) account for the largest shares, while Iran’s share is cited at 0.3%. In Africa, the continent’s combined share stands at 7.7%, led by Egypt (1.7%) and Nigeria (1.5%). In South and Central America, the overall contribution is 4.4%, with Brazil accounting for the largest portion at 1.5%.

Europe as a whole provides 9.5% of global growth. Germany and the United Kingdom each contribute 0.9%, Spain 0.9%, Poland 1%, and Russia 1.1%. However, a substantial part of Europe’s growth is aggregated under “other European countries,” which together account for 2.9%.

This picture suggests that the global economy is moving more decisively than ever toward multipolarity. Strong growth is no longer the preserve of Western economies; countries with large populations, expansive domestic markets and industrial capacity are increasingly becoming the primary drivers of global economic expansion. If sustained, this trend could carry wide-ranging geopolitical, trade and currency implications in the years ahead.