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NewsID : 263898 ‫Saturday‬ 11:05 2025/12/20

Has gold become a barometer of a global monetary earthquake?

NOURNEWS – The unprecedented accumulation of gold by central banks worldwide—particularly through informal channels—offers a clear signal of eroding confidence in the dollar-centric monetary order and a shift toward safe-haven assets.

The chart titled “Cumulative Central Bank Gold Purchases” from 2010 to 2025 presents a rare snapshot of a profound strategic shift in the international monetary system. What stands out most is the widening gap between officially reported purchases and estimated actual acquisitions (including unreported buying)—a gap that has deepened markedly since 2022.

According to estimates by the World Gold Council and Money Metals, total unofficial gold purchases by central banks since 2010 have reached roughly 9,500 tons—about 3,700 tons, or 64%, more than officially declared purchases. This divergence is not merely a statistical discrepancy; it reflects a systematic change in central bank behavior in response to geopolitical risks, sanctions, financial instability and the weaponization of currencies. The turning point in this trend was 2022. Since then, central banks worldwide have accumulated around 3,500 tons of gold—nearly 37% of all purchases over the past 15 years occurring in just the last three years. This unprecedented acceleration coincided with the Ukraine war, tighter financial sanctions, the freezing of countries’ foreign exchange reserves, and rising distrust of the dollar and the euro.

Within this landscape, China’s role stands out more clearly than that of any other player. Data show that in the third quarter of 2025 alone, China purchased 118 tons of gold, marking a 55% increase year-on-year. Yet the significance of the issue goes well beyond this figure. Estimates by Money Metals suggest that China’s actual gold reserves have reached around 5,411 tons—more than double the officially reported figure of 2,304 tons released by the country’s central bank. This vast discrepancy points to a deliberate strategy of gradual, opaque gold accumulation, designed to avoid triggering shocks in global markets.

China’s behavior should be analyzed within the context of its strategic competition with the United States, its efforts to reduce reliance on the dollar, and its push to strengthen the yuan in international trade. But China is not alone. Many emerging economies, and even some developed countries, are redefining their reserve portfolios in favor of gold—an asset that is no one’s liability and cannot be sanctioned.

Taken together, the data and trends depicted in the chart indicate that gold has once again returned to the “hard core” of global monetary policy. Widespread accumulation—especially through informal channels—carries a clear message: central banks are preparing for a riskier, more multipolar and lower-trust financial order, one in which gold is not a decorative asset, but a tool of survival.

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