Security developments in Europe after the Ukraine war have entered a new, accelerated phase—one in which “military deterrence” has returned to the top of the EU’s policy agenda. Data indicate that European countries, particularly the major military powers, are significantly increasing defense budgets to address long-standing gaps that arose from prolonged reliance on the US security umbrella.

Germany leads this race with an unprecedented leap. Its defense budget has risen from around $56bn to $117bn, and the establishment of a special €100bn fund signals Berlin’s determination to become a central military power in Europe. This marks a historic turning point in German defense policy since World War II.

The UK and France, Europe’s two nuclear powers, are following a different path. Both countries have maintained defense spending at roughly 2 percent of GDP, aiming to balance NATO commitments with domestic economic pressures. Yet, the absolute rise in military budgets—$88bn for the UK and $76bn for France—shows that even a policy of “relative stability” does not mean a reduced military role.

At a lower tier, countries such as Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, and Turkey have joined the race with varying motivations and speeds. Poland is a prominent example, having doubled its defense budget from $17bn to $35 bn. This decision stems more from Warsaw’s geopolitical concerns about its proximity to Russia than from economic considerations.

NATO’s push to achieve the 2 percent-of-GDP target is a common driver of all these developments. Yet a complementary—and perhaps more significant—factor is growing doubt over the future of US security commitments. This uncertainty has intensified with Donald Trump’s return to the American political scene, nudging Europeans toward “defense self-reliance.”

Nevertheless, higher defense spending does not automatically translate into immediate deterrence capability. Europe still faces structural misalignments, industrial dependence on the US, and internal political divides. The current arms race, more than a sign of continental defense unity, reflects Europe’s strategic anxiety in an unstable world.