Land subsidence, once a silent and largely overlooked phenomenon, has now become one of Iran’s greatest territorial hazards. According to the Road, Housing, and Urban Development Research Center, it currently places 40 percent of the country’s population under direct threat. The scope of this crisis stretches from southern Tehran to Khorasan Razavi, Kerman, Fars, Isfahan, and other provinces, affecting a total of 30 provinces nationwide.
Official data indicate that the highest levels of land subsidence occur in Khorasan Razavi—a province that, in addition to a severe drop in groundwater levels, suffers from excessive pressure on water resources, illegal extraction, and unsustainable use of aquifers, leaving it vulnerable to structural erosion. Reports show that over recent years, subsidence in Khorasan Razavi has extensively affected 25 distinct areas. Part of this crisis has been exacerbated by the allocation of non-potable wells to supply drinking water for Tehran, creating a chain of environmental pressures across multiple regions.
The intensification of subsidence is not limited to eastern Iran. Southern Tehran has experienced a threefold increase in subsidence rates over the past two years. Due to its concentrated population, high-rise buildings, critical infrastructure, energy transmission lines, and major transportation arteries, this area is among the country’s most sensitive zones. If this trend continues, it could pose a serious threat to the capital’s urban security and even increase the likelihood of secondary crises such as structural collapses or disruptions to transportation networks.
According to data, Kerman, Fars, Isfahan, and Tehran are at the top of the list of provinces likely to enter a “high-intensity” phase of subsidence in the near future. In many of these provinces, the process has become irreversible and is proceeding at a rate far exceeding natural geological speeds.
More worryingly, experts warn that by 1460 [Iranian calendar], at least 14 provinces will experience a definitive population decline compared to current levels. A significant portion of this reduction will result from forced migration caused by environmental threats, including land subsidence, water scarcity, and reduced territorial resilience.
Land subsidence carries a crucial message for national management: today’s crisis is the product of decades of excessive water extraction, uneven development, water-intensive agriculture, and inadequate oversight. Addressing it requires immediate action—from controlling groundwater extraction and shutting illegal wells to redesigning cropping patterns, restoring plains, and scientifically managing water resources. If this cycle is not halted, the current threat could evolve into one of the largest territorial security crises Iran will face in the coming decades.