Speculation is growing over the impact of snapback of UN sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, with some analysts cautioning that Tehran could possibly lose its largest customer, China, for it does not want to antagonize the US. "The 25-year-old Iran-China treaty cannot be fruitful because China prioritizes trade with the West and the United States. It should be noted that China has $600 billion in trade with the United States, which is why China will not take any action that would disrupt its trade," energy expert Hashem Oraee told Mehr News Agency.

Oraee also pointed out that Russia as Iran’s competitor in the global energy market, is unlikely to help Tehran boost production, given both countries rely on Asian buyers such as India and China to offset their inability to sell crude to the West. Because in that case, Iran gains more market share.

Bloomberg reported last week that Indian officials have informed Washington that a significant reduction in Russian oil imports by the South Asian country’s refineries would require Washington to allow New Delhi to buy crude from Iran and Venezuela. According to informed sources, India had emphasized that a simultaneous cut in oil supplies to Indian refineries from Russia, Iran and Venezuela, all major oil producers, could lead to a rise in global prices.

India’s Ministry of Commerce confirmed earlier this month that in June it imported $111 million worth of crude from Iran, marking the first such shipment since New Delhi halted purchases in 2018 under US pressure. Between January and July, India also brought in $94 million worth of refined petroleum products from Iran. In total, Iranian exports of crude and petroleum products to India in the first seven months of 2025 amounted to $205 million, accounting for 54 percent of all Iranian exports to the country.

India consumes roughly 4.7 million barrels of crude daily, nearly 40 percent of which has recently been supplied by cheap Russian oil. Should India scale back imports, they could face a two-million-barrel shortfall, which can play into Iran and Venezuela hands. Both countries are under sanctions but offering steep discounts and are be well-positioned to address this gap.

Hamid Hosseini, spokesman for Iran’s Union of Petroleum Products Exporters, told Mehr News Agency that India has already floated the idea of replacing Russian oil with Iranian’s. He said that none of Iran’s exports to India are restricted by UN resolutions.

Technically, Iran’s heavy grades are among the closest substitutes for Russia’s Urals blend. Both have similar API gravity and sulfur levels, making Iranian crude an easy fit for Indian refineries designed for Urals without costly modifications. The compatibility reduces downtime and operational costs, while Iran’s willingness to offer flexible payment mechanisms, including rupee-denominated deals and barter arrangements, further strengthens its appeal.