Simultaneously with the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon starting Wednesday, and after five years since the Sochi agreement and the cessation of hostilities in northern Syria, the terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has launched extensive operations in the Aleppo region and the eastern outskirts of Idlib.
Although some media outlets supporting the terrorist group are trying to highlight the role of Abu Muhammad Jolani, the leader of this group, in this action, it is clearly evident that, in the most optimistic scenario, a joint operations room managed by the United States, the Zionist regime, and some of their regional allies is overseeing and supporting these operations. Mercenary terrorists are merely playing the role of mercenary foot soldiers as they have in the past.
On Friday afternoon, reports emerged regarding the infiltration of terrorists into the western part of Aleppo, and subsequently, the occupation of areas in this city was confirmed by independent sources with minimal resistance from the Syrian army.
Although analyzing the events of the past 48 hours cannot be done without considering the developments of the coming days due to the significant increase in the complexities governing the relations and interests of various actors in West Asia, one point that can currently be emphasized with certainty is the continued efforts of the United States, the Zionist regime, and some of their regional allies to deliver serious blows to the resistance axis.
From an operational and field perspective, the terrorists of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham will attempt to expand their control over northern Syria bordering Turkey by fully occupying the provinces of Aleppo, Hama, and Idlib. However, it cannot be accepted that the political and security objectives of these actions fully align with the operational goals.
Carrying out these operations while Hezbollah, Russia, and Iran—Syria's main allies in the fight against Takfiri terrorists—are engaged in conflicts in Lebanon, Ukraine, and regional crises is seen as an opportunity being exploited by Israel and the U.S. for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which suffered heavy defeats by the Syrian army and its allies about five years ago.
In this context, Trump’s success in the U.S. presidential elections and his imminent presence in the White House could also significantly alter and revise the motivations of the main actors in the developments of West Asia, which future events could clarify.
Although the mechanism created under the Astana meetings with the participation of Iran, Russia, Turkey, and Syria to coordinate political and operational approaches has diminished and become almost semi-active after the Sochi agreement and five years of the cessation of full-scale war between Syria and its allies against Takfiri terrorists, the most essential action that should be prioritized in managing the current situation in Syria is to reactivate the Astana format.
Perhaps the recent visit of Bashar al-Assad, the President of Syria, to Moscow amid escalating military conflicts in the north of the country was aimed at this objective and at garnering Russia's attention regarding this matter.
Bashar al-Assad is well aware that the only party that stood alongside Syria during the comprehensive military and political onslaught by regional and trans-regional countries, at a heavy cost, was the Islamic Republic of Iran. Even now, despite the profound political, security, and military developments taking place in the region, the only salvaging remedy for this country is to utilize the capacities of the resistance axis and align with it.
The West Asia region has experienced significant ups and downs over recent decades due to the designs of the United States and the Zionist regime, yet their intended goals have never been realized because they contradict the interests and values of the people in this region, and they will not be achieved in the future either.