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Autopsy of Kissinger's strategic recommendations to Ukraine

Autopsy of Kissinger's strategic recommendations to Ukraine

Recalling the need for Ukraine to rely on its own resources to make decisions, Kissinger advised Ukrainian leaders not to take the path of turning a limited political war into a total territorial war.

NOURNEWS - Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which it calls a special operation, has provoked mixed reactions in the international arena, regardless of the reasons for its formation.

Some experts on strategic issues believe that Russia did not have an accurate estimate of Ukraine's initial resistance capability and therefore could not achieve its goals until the logistical and arms support of European and American powers was reached.

Of course, the time chosen for the war was as good for the resistance of the Ukrainians as it was for the strength of the Russian army.

This war soon turned from a war between the two countries into a war between European powers and the United States against Russia, so that the battlefields of Ukraine could promote new weapons on both sides beyond military maneuvers. but this is not the whole story.

A new Cold War seems to have taken place between the West, and especially the United States and Russia, during which a regional conflict to maintain the geopolitical power of each actor has added a mild warmth to the former "cold battle."

Russia seeks to strengthen or at least consolidate its position as an influential regional player in influencing international equations, and the West sees increasing pro-Chinese power as new geopolitical challenges and an obstacle to implementing a new US strategy toward China.

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who is 98 years old and has a bittersweet political experience, made the latest remarks at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland; He has made some thought-provoking remarks about this confrontation.

Concerned about the tensions he described as "widespread", he did not find it easy to overcome them and therefore advised "negotiate as soon as possible".

A sentence that sounded somewhat more colorful than Zelensky's call for courageous resistance.

Kissinger described the irrational nature of giving a ideological nature to a limited and privileged war as irrational.

He called any war beyond the liberation of Ukraine a war against Russia, and therefore warned the West against such a semantic development.

Kissinger's geopolitical perspective is thought-provoking. "Do not forget your long-term relationship with Russia," he told the West, noting that Russia has been part of Europe for centuries.

Kissinger cited neglect as an important factor in pushing Russia toward China. Kissinger's remarks to the Ukrainians, however, are more thought-provoking.

In addition to having what he called "courage in war," he called on Ukraine to combine the adjective with "wisdom."

It is clear that rationalism is defined in the intellectual system of Kissinger and politicians like him as the maximization of national interests in international relations.

It is clear that someone like Kissinger does not recommend combining the virtues of courage with reason as ancient Greek philosophers in terms of knowledge and culture.

He may be referring to the interaction that has emerged as the mainstay of politics in international relations since the 17th century, which divides world wars into two parts: "full-blown wars" aimed at destroying a country's political independence and The country, and "limited wars" with the aim of determining and gaining points for peace.

A similar view can be seen in Clausewitz's writings. He calls the war a continuation of politics in another way, a manifestation of which can be seen in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Another important point that Kissinger may have noticed is that one can make wiser decisions when defending.

This hypothesis is more in line with Clausewitz, who always saw defense as a more powerful form of warfare than aggression.

According to him, maintaining the former lands is always easier than capturing the new land. In defense, successive organizations are possible, while an attack always disrupts the previous organization unexpectedly.

The result of Kissinger's advice, according to Clausewitz, is that Ukrainians should know that war occurs because of a political situation and along with it, and that it should be seen as a political act.

The combination of wisdom and courage that Kissinger referred to the Ukrainians is in fact an invitation to Ukraine to find a political solution.

Contemporary conflicts have also shown that war has always been a tool for weight gain in political dialogue, not a real end to it.

The reasons for Russia's invasion of Ukraine are an attempt to change Kyiv's approach to the West, and it clearly means that Russia is not seeking to wage a full-scale war to remove Ukraine from the geographical arena, but to wage a limited war to bring about the changes that Considers it a privilege to manage and impose those privileges on its neighbor with this war.

Russia blamed the West for the attack, saying it was the result of a continuation of NATO's policy of expanding to the east, which Moscow says affects the balance of power in international politics.

It is accepted that any country in crisis can attract resources to resolve its crisis, but the advice given to Ukraine by people like Kissinger seems to remind the country that it should imagine without receiving facilities and without the support of its friends and What can he do based on what he has?

The answer to this question is that it can pave the way for the future.

A realistic view of the limitations of power, both militarily and economically, and even given the political position and weight of countries in the structure of the international system, will lead them not to take a step that turns a limited and political war into a total war.

Kissinger's final recommendation to Ukraine, entitled "Return to Negotiations," seems to be a realistic view based on the experiences of countries in the field of international relations.

BY: Pooya Mirzaei


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