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Eurasia, explosive barrels of gunpowder in conflict of interests of the United States, China, Russia, and Europe

Eurasia, explosive barrels of gunpowder in conflict of interests of the United States, China, Russia, and Europe

Although the nature of the West's new rivalry with Russia is different from that of the Cold War during the Soviet era, geopolitical and social developments in Eurasia are becoming more like the events and alliances of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.

NOURNEWS - The United States and its European allies, including France, Britain and Germany, have created a major crisis for Russia over the past half-century that shows no sign of ending until the Kremlin is completely trapped.

Russia is deeply concerned about the expansion of the European Union and NATO, as well as the presence of China and the United States in its security sphere. Putin is well aware that Russia is the next destination for the United States and NATO.

The expansion of NATO and the European Union, Ukraine's integration into the West, and the promotion of Western democracy are among a series of policies that have provoked hostility toward Russia, with the Ukraine-Kazakhstan crisis at the forefront.

The Western Coalition seeks to highlight the Chinese uprising in such a way as to ignore the role of geography and the geopolitical dynamics resulting from the mapping of regional powers, especially Russia.

Although the nature of the West's new rivalry with Russia is different from that of the Cold War during the Soviet era, geopolitical and social developments in Eurasia are becoming more like the events and alliances of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries and the division of land around the world.

So the West thinks that the more it enters Central Asian countries or encourages color revolutions in Russia's neighborhood, the more Moscow will inevitably react more strongly, thereby isolating Russia.

At present, the emergence of separatist groups in eastern Ukraine, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and the Kremlin's ties to close groups in Central Asia are all major factors in Russia's macro-policies to control the former Soviet territories, which Moscow considers its sphere of influence.

In such circumstances, Russia, in order to maintain and expand its role in world developments in the shadow of competition with the United States, has to play a serious role in vital areas of the world, especially borders and security, as well as maintaining its immediate borders.

The complexities of the conflicting goals and interests of the United States, China, and Russia in Eurasia have led to the emergence of a balancing approach to Moscow in the region, and the Kremlin is now pursuing an offensive approach between the US and Chinese efforts to enter Russian sphere of influence.

It is unacceptable for Putin to create a world in which Russia becomes a second-rate player in an international order based on US-Chinese rivalry. With a clear understanding of the geopolitical context, Putin intends to pursue a tripartite order in the US-China rivalry for global share.

On the other hand, Putin must make up for the Kremlin's historic mistake at the end of the Cold War, in which the Kremlin did not oppose the US military presence in Europe or even Germany's membership in NATO because of its military might.

This lack of opposition led to NATO's arrogance and the main conflict that began in 1990. When Clinton pushed for NATO expansion and the Kremlin was still asleep, it woke up when Boris Yeltsin admitted during the NATO bombing of Serbia in 1995 that "this is the first sign that something could bring NATO to Russia's borders.

In 1999, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic joined NATO. The next round of memberships took place in 2004, when Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and three Baltic states joined NATO, which was strongly opposed by Moscow.

But the main dispute began in April 2008 at the NATO summit in Bucharest, which discussed Ukraine and Georgia's membership in NATO. Despite French and German opposition to the membership, the Bush administration was determined to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO.

Mikheil Saakashvili was very persistent in Georgia's accession to NATO. After the Budapest summit, he decided to merge the breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which made up about 20 percent of Georgia, because NATO membership required a settlement of territorial disputes.

But the Russia-Georgia war in August 2008 dispelled all doubts about Russia's determination to prevent Ukraine and Georgia from joining NATO. Putin was determined that this alliance would not happen. His preference was for a weak and fragmented Georgia.

With the outbreak of war between Georgia and Ossetian separatists, Russia invaded Georgia under the pretext of "humanitarian action" and took control of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The West did not react significantly and left Saakashvili in the middle of a swamp of war. Russia clarified its position, but NATO refused to give up on Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO.

Putin believed that the two countries' accession to NATO was a direct threat to Russia. In a direct conversation with Bush, Putin made it very clear that if Ukraine joined NATO, it would end its existence.

The occupation of Crimea in 2014 showed that Putin is determined to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and to create a security flaw to threaten our security in exchange for Europe.

Crimea was an easy target because sixty percent of its inhabitants were ethnically arrogant. Putin made it clear that he would keep Ukraine on the brink of war before allowing a Western fortress to be built on Russia's immediate borders, and that he would provide arms and financial support to the separatist separatists in eastern Ukraine. Fight a civil war.

Moscow is ready to go to war if Kyiv suppresses separatists by deploying significant ground forces on the Russian-Ukrainian border.

Ukraine has also entered into close cooperation with two other serious Russian rivals, China and Turkey, as it seeks to join NATO.

Ukraine is well aware that China and Russia are as many rivals as they are committed to building an illiberal world order.

According to Kyiv, the growing asymmetry in the capabilities of the two countries and the historical mutual distrust represent a set of conflicts of interest between Beijing and Moscow that can be exploited by Ukraine.

Russia is India's strategic partner, a serious rival to China, and Beijing has reciprocally expanded its trade and military ties with Ukraine over the years.

Kyiv is aware that neither country has explicitly supported each other on foreign issues such as eastern Ukraine and the South China Sea.

Even in some strategic situations, the parties have pursued other interests for greater commercial gain.

On the other hand, Kyiv and Ankara have upgraded cooperation to a special military level and the construction of a military and industrial complex in the Black Sea. In addition, bilateral cooperation has begun in the development of joint weapons and the production of the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 UAV in Ukraine.

In general, the Ukrainians' frustration with NATO over the occupation of Crimea has led them to form a new trans-regional defense alliance that includes Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Britain, Turkey, and Poland.

The proximity of Ukraine and Turkey is definitely a challenge for Moscow. The presence of Turkish drones in Ukraine has negative consequences for Russia. If they fly over Donbas, the Russian-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk (DPR, LPR) will be under pressure.

Moscow is also concerned about Turkey's support for the Crimean Tatar diaspora and the formation of a joint Ukrainian-Turkish navy in the Black Sea.

Russia and Turkey have started fierce competition in different parts of the region.

Ankara's unconditional support for Azerbaijan in the war against Armenia and the continuing reduction of Turkey's energy dependence on Russia has formed part of this regional rivalry.

STAR, Turkey's largest oil refinery, has also reduced its purchases of Russian oil to imports from Iraq and Norway, and Azerbaijan has replaced Russia as Turkey's largest source of natural gas.

Ankara's efforts to discover gas resources in the Mediterranean could even lead to the disuse of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline.

The Blue Stream pipeline is also almost closed.

The next step is to complete the construction of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline, which is part of the Southern Gas Corridor and is designed to become an alternative route for natural gas supplies to Europe.

The network will send gas pipelines from the Shah Deniz offshore field in Azerbaijan to the southeast, bypassing Russia via Turkey and Greece, so Moscow will gradually lose its oil and gas energy leverage in foreign policy.

Recent developments have sounded the alarm for Russia about a significant shift in the balance of power in the Black Sea and South Caucasus regions.

Moscow, like Georgia, must take tough action against Ukraine or uncoordinated developments within any CSTO member state, such as Kazakhstan, that threaten Russia's interests.

In any case, the West is moving into Russia's backyard and threatening its strategic interests. Ukraine is a very important strategic obstacle on the way to Moscow, occupying a vast expanse of flat land that Napoleon France, Imperial Germany, and Nazi Germany have crossed to invade Russia.

No leader in the world can tolerate the movement of a hostile military alliance like NATO.

Russian leaders are not sitting idle as the West consolidates its preferred political-security system in Moscow's neighborhood.

With these interpretations, it remains to be seen to what extent the Kremlin is determined to pay the price for defending Moscow.

In any case, the Eurasian region, in the conflict of interests of the United States, China, Russia, and Europe, has turned into a barrel of gunpowder that can explode at any moment with a mistake.


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